From the Trading Floor - Week 49

From the Trading Floor

Join Jay and DAZN Bet’s trading team as they bring you the pick of this week’s sports bets in “From The Trading Floor”

Luton Town v Arsenal – Premier League – 20:15 – December 5

Arsenal will be brimming with confidence after the last ten days and they’ll be hoping to continue their recent run of form when they travel to Kenilworth Road on Tuesday to take on a struggling Luton side.

The Gunners followed up a 1-0 victory at Brentford towards the end of November with a 6-0 hammering of Lens in the Champions League last Wednesday, before picking up a 2-1 victory at home to Wolves in the Premier League on Saturday afternoon to leave themselves two points clear of Liverpool at the summit of the English top flight. They’ve been defensively solid up to this point, conceding just 11 times, whilst Martin Odegaard, Bukayo Saka, Eddie Nketiah, Leandro Trossard and Gabriel Jesus have all chipped in with goals, with each scoring at least five times already this season.

Luton, meanwhile, sit just two points above Everton in 17th place following their 3-1 defeat at Brentford on Saturday, and manager Rob Edwards will no doubt be demanding more from his players ahead of this tie with Arsenal on Tuesday. However, there’s no real reason for panic amongst the Hatters camp as they’ve so far shown that they can more than hold their own against established Premier League clubs.

Recent weeks have seen Luton claim a point at home to second-placed Liverpool, whilst also beating Crystal Palace and suffering a narrow 1-0 defeat at Old Trafford against Man United. There seems to be an expectance for Arsenal to come through with a fairly comfortable victory, but that might be easier said than done against a team that has also conceded just 8 times in their six home Premier League games this season.

You have to go back to August 21nd 2021 to find the last time Luton actually lost a home game by more than a single goal, that being a 5-0 loss to Birmingham City, so it’s difficult understand why the Hatters are odds against to keep that streak going when they host Arsenal.

For me, this one should realistically culminate with an away victory, but I don’t see it being an easy trip for Mikael Arteta’s men. Luton have shown themselves to be a tricky customer in front of their own supporters, so taking them to keep within a goal of the Gunners feels like a fairly reasonable choice.

Traders’ Tip: Luton +1.5 @ 13/10. A £10 bet at these odds could return £23.

 

Aston Villa v Manchester City – Premier League – 20:15 – December 6

At the start of the season this fixture probably didn’t seem like it could be a major turning point of the season, but such is the drama of the Premier League that this is exactly the situation we find ourselves in.

Having dropped points in each of their last three Premier League fixtures, Manchester City now find themselves sitting three points the top of the table but, even more incredibly, they also find themselves sitting just one point above Wednesday nights fourth placed opponents, Aston Villa.

Even more unbelievably, more so for the hosts, is that this is an encounter between the two highest scoring teams in the Premier League.

Man City have managed to notch 36 goals in their 14 fixtures to this point, with striker Erling Haaland leading the way with a goal per game on fourteen. Whilst Aston Villa have scored 33 times during the same period, with 23 of those goals coming in their six fixtures at Villa Park.

This suggests that we could very well be in for another high scoring affair when the two sides meet in the Midlands on Wednesday, and I also feel like this could be far more competitive than the favouritism towards the visitors suggest.

Man City might be treble winners from the 2022/23 season, but in Aston Villa they’re facing a team that has won each of their last 13 home Premier League fixtures, one that has also won all six of their home league games this season by at least a two goal margin. We all know how dangerous Man City can be when they’re at their best, but it’s also clear that Villa are also a scintillating team when playing at Villa Park.

I can’t take either side to win with much confidence, but I am more than willing to side with goals being scored. These two obviously know where the net is, so taking both teams to score and a total of at least three goals in the match looks to be a very solid option.

Traders’ Tip: Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 Goals @ 15/20. A £10 bet at these odds could return £17.50.

 

Snooker Shoot Out – December 6th To December 9th

This Wednesday will see the return of the one frame showdown known as the Snooker Shoot Out, and I’ll be once again taking a punt on which of the 128 participants will come out on top.

Back in January I had a good feeling about Mark Williams, but the evergreen Welshman went on to lose in the third round against a well-supported Dechawat Poomjaeng, with Warwickshire’s Chris Wakelin eventually winning the final against Belgium’s Julien LeClercq at Leicester’s Morningside Arena.

This time around the drama will be unfolding in Swansea, and it feels like it could be worthwhile taking one of the 16 Welsh entrants to emerge with the crown, given that they’ll all have the crowd right behind them from start.

There’s always a sense that pretty much anyone can win this event, and history certainly seems to back this up. It has been a maiden ranking title victory for five of the last six winners, including Wakelin, and this year could very much follow suit.

Of all the Welsh players without a title, Jak Jones, Jamie Jones, Jamie Clarke and Jackson Page stand out as the four with the most realistic chance of getting over the line for the home nation this week. None of them are yet to make a professional final but they’ve all established themselves around the top fifty in the rankings.

Page has won just two of the six matches he’s played in this event, and has never previously progressed beyond the last 16 of a ranking event. He should be expected to get past 15 year old Irish amateur Leone Crowley in his opening round fixture, but he’ll be fortunate if he does manage to go deep this week.

Jamie Jones has previously made three semi-finals in ranking events, and was a beaten quarter finalist in both the European Masters and British Open last season. This season he’s so far featured in the main draw of most events, but his 6-0 whitewash at the hands of Judd Trump in last week’s UK Championship is sure to have given his confidence a bit of a knock.

Jak Jones made his first career semi final at 2022 Gibraltar Open, where he lost to eventual champion Robert Milkins, and he had a solid run to the Quarter Finals of last season’s World Championship before losing to Mark Allen. He’s also made it to at least the third round of the Shoot Out in five of his seven appearances, so he has to be considered as someone who could still be involved on the final day, although his opening round game against Ashley Carty certainly doesn’t look like a pushover.

Likewise, Jamie Clarke has also shown a bit of a liking for this event. He’s made it to at least the last 16 stage in three of the last five editions, including a semi final loss to a blistering Thepchaiya Uh-Nooh back in 2019.

Clarke has a fairly straightforward opening tie against Estonia’s Andres Petrov and he should at least make it through the first hurdle as a result. Whether he can go much further remains to be seen, so my best option is to have some interest in all four and hope that one of them manages to prevail come Saturday.

Traders’ Tip: Either Jak Jones, Jamie Jones, Jamie Clarke or Jackson Page To Win @ 10/1. A £10 bet at these odds could return £110.

 

Regis Prograis v Devin Haney –  Approx. 23:59 – December 9

You can tell we’re heading towards the festive period when top quality boxing keeps coming thick and fast and this weekend is no exception, with Saturday night’s showdown between Regis Prograis and Devin Haney for the WBC super lightweight title taking centre stage.

The epic battle between these two American brawlers will take place in Haney’s hometown of San Fransisco, where the undefeated 25-year-old will hope to add Prograis’s super lightweight title to his collection of lightweight belts when he steps up a division on Saturday.

Prograis won the vacant belt following an 11th round stoppage victory over Jose Zepeda in November of last year, and is one of the hardest hitters in the division having picked up 24 knockout victories in 30 fights, with just a sole loss to Josh Taylor at the O2 Arena in 2019 featuring as his only blemish. The man nicknamed Rougarou is also ranked as the second best boxer in the super lightweight division, behind American Teofimo Lopez.

Haney, meanwhile, is regarded as one of the top ten pound-for-pound fighters in the world by renowned boxing magazine The Ring. He’s also notched up 30 fights during his career to date, all resulting in a victory, with fifteen coming by way of knock out, however, his last seven bouts have all resulted in unanimous points decisions over twelve rounds, showing that he’s more than capable of boxing the distance, despite being almost 10 years younger than Prograis at 25 years old.

The real test for Haney here is going to be whether he can deal with the sheer power of someone who’s typically boxed at five pounds heavier than his previous opponents to date. Haney has dominated at 135lbs, but stepping up to 140lbs is going to be arguably his biggest test to date. Knowing that Haney has got the stamina, I feel that Prograis will ideally need to target an early knock down, as I can’t see him outboxing the Californian over 36 minutes.

The home favourite is also the favourite to emerge victorious in the encounter, but I can certainly anticipate one or two worrying moments during the course of this contest.

Knowing that Prograis is a big hitter I’m going to go against the grain here and take this one not to go the distance, we’ve not seen too much of the current champion when it comes to lasting the full course, so either fighter picking this one up via stoppage feels like it could be a worthwhile proposition.

Traders’ Tip: Fight Not To Go The Distance @ 3/1. A £10 bet at these odds could return £40.

 

La Rochelle v Leinster – European Rugby Champions Cup – Pool D – 15:15 – December 10

The pinacle competition in European domestic rugby union gets underway this weekend with the opening round fixtures of this season’s Rugby Champions Cup, and Sunday’s encounter between La Rochelle and Leinster provides us with an early sequel to last season’s final.

The two sides met at Dublin’s Aviva Stadium in May for the honour of being crowned as champions of Europe. It was Irish giants Leinster who were expected to leave their home ground with the title, but the French side had other ideas. Despite trailing 17-26 with just over half an hour to go, La Rochelle rallied back to secure a 27-26 victory, breaking Irish hearts and securing back to back Champions Cup triumphs in the process. As a result, they are now chasing an unprecedented third straight title, and they could have asked for a more fitting first opponent to kick-off their 2023/24 campaign.

It would also likely be a welcome distraction from what has been a poor start to their own domestic season. La Rochelle currently find themselves ninth in the Top 14 table after losing five of their first nine matches.

The poor start to the season is somewhat of a mystery, especially with them still maintaining the large bulk of the warriors that took to the field in Dublin. Ronan O’Gara also still leads their coaching set-up, so there’s not really been too much to explain why they’ve had such a poor start to follow up an impressive past campaign.

Leinster, in contrast, have started their United Rugby Championship season pretty much as expected. After losing their opening game at Glasgow, during the closing stages of the 2023 Rugby World Cup, Leinster have since gone on to win six games in a row to give themselves a three point lead at the top of the table. Momentum is sure to be high too, especially after also picking up a 21-16 victory over fierce rivals Munster just under a fortnight ago.

Having already got revenge on the team that pipped them to last season’s domestic honours, this weekend provides a perfect opportunity for Leinster to get the same outcome when they face La Rochelle on Sunday. Their past three meetings have all gone the way of the French outfit, but this certainly feels like the right time for Leinster to start to put things right again. They’re taking on a group of wounded champions at just the right time, and the memory of that loss earlier this year should be more than enough to spur the visitors on to victory in southwestern France this weekend.

Traders’ Tip: Leinster To Win @ 9/10. A £10 bet at these odds could return £19.

 

A £10 5-Fold on the above selections could return £3,364.90.

 

*Odds correct at time of publishing. Available to UK residents (excluding Northern Ireland) aged 18+ only. T&Cs apply. www.begambleaware.org

 

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