From the Trading Floor - Week 48

From the Trading Floor

Join Jay and DAZN Bet’s trading team as they bring you the pick of this week’s sports bets in “From The Trading Floor”

 

PSG v Newcastle United – UEFA Champions League – 20:00 – November 29

The UEFA Champions League really is entering crunch time in the group stages, and this Tuesday’s encounter at the Parc des Princes between PSG and Newcastle could spell the end of the visitor’s European adventure.

Newcastle had started Group F in fantastic fashion, following up a goalless draw away to AC Milan with a 4-1 routing of the perennial French champions at St James’ Park. However, back to back losses against Dortmund has now left the Magpies bottom of their group, and defeat in Paris, paired with a victory for AC Milan over Dortmund in the group’s other game, would see the English club already cemented in bottom place even before the final round of fixtures in two weeks’ time.

They do come in to the fixture off the back of a 4-1 Premier League victory at home to Chelsea over this past weekend, but away form ahead of their trip to France hasn’t been particularly great.

Newcastle have won just two of their nine fixtures on the road this season, failing to score in four of them, including their most recent 2-0 away defeat at a struggling Bournemouth side.

PSG are steadily doing what they do year on year. With a frontline containing Kylian Mbappe, it’s little surprise to see them leading Ligue 1. They managed to beat fellow title rivals Monaco 5-2 on Friday night with Mbappe scoring his fourteenth league goal of the season.

The Parisians have now won six home games on the trot and had gone five without conceding prior to Friday’s rout, meaning that Newcastle will certainly need to find an extra gear if they want to stand any chance of picking up a positive result when they travel across the English Channel.

I’d love to see the visitors turn up and spring another surprise on the French giants but, sadly, it feels like this could be the end of the round for them this time around. I can’t see how Newcastle can be expected to overturn their poor away form at the expense of an impressive-looking PSG team.

The hosts have won their last five home games by at least a three-goal margin and, with Newcastle pretty much needing to be on the front foot from the start, I can see them picking up another comfortable victory and potentially securing their own spot in the knockout stages at the visitors’ expense.

Traders’ Tip: PSG -1.5 @ 8/5. A £10 bet at these odds could return £26.

Galatasaray v Manchester United – UEFA Champions League – 17:45 – November 30

Manchester United are another team in real danger of seeing their participation in UEFA competitions ended this week, unless they can somehow manage to conjure up a positive result away to Galatasaray.

United only really have themselves to blame for their Champions League failure up to this point. They have twice surrendered leads during the final 20 minutes of matches and ultimately ended up on the losing side, including in the reverse of this fixture at Old Trafford, and now they realistically need to beat both Galatasary and Bayern Munich in order to progress to the knock-out stages.

It’s pretty much been the story of the Red Devils’ season so far, they’ve not been a team which has dominated games, yet they somehow find themselves sitting just six points off the top of the Premier League table and having won five of their last six games in the English top flight.

Last weekend’s 3-0 success away to Everton was a flattering result for United, they were arguably second best for most of the contest, yet finding that way to win at all costs has been a staple part of their season.

Galatasaray’s 3-2 victory at Old Trafford remains their only success in Group A, yet victory on Wednesday would ensure they secure a Europa League knock-out place at the very least, with a Champions League last 16 berth potentially hinging on their final game in Copenhagen. They have lost three of their last six in all competitions, including back-to-back defeats at the hands of Bayern Munich in their two most recent Champions League fixtures, but they are on a run of scoring in each of their last nineteen competitive fixtures. Argentine forward Mauro Icardi has scored sixteen goals in 21 appearances, and certainly poses the most potent threat for the hosts.

Still, I can’t help but feel like Man United are going to get the victory here. Erik ten Haag’s side have done little of note since the season began, yet they do boast so much talent amongst their ranks, and that often helps them find a way to perform when they’re firmly against a wall. Not only have they conceded during the closing stages of games, but they’ve also been on the right side of late drama too. Of their 10 victories this season,         only three have come when United have been leading at half-time. With the Red Devils going on to turn a first half deadlock in to a victory on five occasions. This feels like the kind of game that might not open up until the second half, with so much on the line, and so I’m siding with the visitors coming out on top in a similar manner on Wednesday.

Traders’ Tip: Halftime/Fulltime – Draw/Man Utd @ 5/1. A £10 bet at these odds could return £60.

Harlequins v Sale Sharks – Gallagher Premiership – 19:45 – December 1

Sale Sharks continue to lead the way at the head of the Gallagher Premiership, and this Friday the table toppers make the long journey from Greater Manchester to London to face Harlequins.

The Sharks were involved in a very tense affair against Bath last week in what was a battle of the top two. In a low scoring match, with just one try being scored, it was a contest between the two fly-halves, with Sale’s George Ford ultimately getting the better of Finn Russell courtesy of a 73rd minute match-winning penalty in their 11-9 success, taking their record to six wins from seven matches to start the new season.

At the same time as that contest, Harlequins were involved in an equally tense encounter in the midlands against Northampton. Both teams managed to combine for a total of 69 points in that one, with Northampton eventually holding on for a narrow 36-33 victory following Quins late converted try in the last two minutes of the game. That defeat was their second successive loss following a humbling at home to Saracens a week prior, and they will no doubt be keen to climb back towards the summit sooner rather than later having topped the table after four straight victories just a fortnight ago.

Despite coming in to the fixture following back-to-back losses, it is the fifth placed club who are the favourites to emerge victorious. However, I find it difficult to back a team which has shipped over 100 points in their last three fixtures with much confidence.

Sale need to be respected after their solid season, especially considering that they also finished as runners-up last year. With six wins from the last seven meetings between the two, and the best defence in the league outside of Exeter, it’s also clear that they should have more than an outside chance of winning this one, and I see no real reason to oppose them leaving with the spoils.

Traders’ Tip: Sale Sharks To Win @ 9/5. A £10 bet at these odds could return £28.

Michael Conlan v Jordan Gill –  Approx. 22:30 – December 2

After Katie Taylor’s victory over Chantelle Cameron in Dublin last Saturday night, this weekend it’s time to travel across the northern side of the Irish border to Belfast’s Odyssey Arena for Michael Conlan’s featherweight bout with Jordan Gill.

32-year-old Conlan has fought his last three bouts at his home arena in the Northern Irish capital, but his most recent outing in May saw him defeat via a fifth round stoppage when challenging Luis Alberto Lopez for the IBF Featherweight Title.

This Saturday gives Conlan a chance at some form of redemption when facing England’s Jordan Gill. A fighter who also suffered defeat via a stoppage when he last fought, with his loss coming at Wembley last October against former IBF Featherweight champion Kiko Martinez.

The expectation seems to be for a fairly routine Conlan victory in front of his home crowd, but the bout has the potential to be far less straightforward than the odds may suggest.

Gill, like Conlan, has suffered just two losses during his career, although most of his bouts have come against arguably weaker opposition when compared to those fought by the Belfast man. The two men also share victories over both Karim Guerfi and Jason Cunningham over the course of their careers, and both have also held WBA belts at the featherweight level within the last couple of years.

Over a shorter distance, I’d say this one could very much lie in the balance, but a twelve round bout is probably more likely to be advantageous to Conlan. Knock out victories haven’t been a speciality for Conlan over a longer match length, he’s won just three of his eleven bouts since competing over 10 rounds or more inside the distance, but he’s certainly shown that he has the stamina to go from bell-to-bell, with six decision victories and three final round stoppages over the same period.

Gill, meanwhile, has won all three of his ten round bouts that have gone the distance, but he’s yet to see a twelve round affair last the full thirty six minutes.

With a potential twelve round bout on the cards I don’t think either fighter is necessarily going to go at this aggressively from the off and I can certainly see it going the distance as a result. In which case, I think the uncertainty over Gill’s latter stage stamina, compared to Conlan’s past experience in long bouts, could come in to play. I can see it being slightly tricky for the home favourite during the early rounds, but as the fight wears on he should have more than enough to outbox his opponent. Conlan by decision looks to be the best value option for me.

Traders’ Tip: Michael Conlan To Win By Decision or Technical Decision @ 15/8. A £10 bet at these odds could return £28.75.

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles – NFL – 21:35 – December 3

The NFL has thrown up some fantastic fixtures over the past couple of weeks and this Sunday is once again no exception with the encounter between the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers spearheading the weekend action.

With both teams currently heading the NFC standings, and also leading the betting for this season’s Super Bowl, this game not only promises to be one of very high quality, but it also has major Playoff ramifications.

Victory for the hosts would mean that the Eagles would move to a record of 11-1, and see them become the first team to secure at least a post-season wild card spot if other results work in their favour.

Things could have turned out so differently for the Eagles over the past weekend had they not emerged victorious against the Buffalo Bills in arguably the best game of the season so far.

Their 37-34 overtime success was only made possible because of Jake Elliott’s 59 yard field goal for the Eagles, which came with the last action of regular time in wet and windy conditions. The Eagles struggled offensively for large parts of the game but their rallying performance late in the second half, including some incredible high pressure completions from quarterback Jalen Hurts, managed to show all the signs of a potential Super Bowl winning team.

Three straight victories for the 49ers has moved them to 8-3, and also put two games between themselves and the Seahawks in recent weeks, mainly thanks to a 31-13 victory in Seattle on Thursday night.

They’ll also be well aware that defeat on Sunday would leave them three games behind the Eagles in the battle for the number one seed, which would be almost insurmountable during the final five rounds of fixtures.

This fixture looks set to be an incredible encounter as a result, and I have found it incredibly difficult to pick between the two.

Despite losing just once this season the Eagles have had to battle for pretty much all of their victories, whilst the 49ers have won with relative ease during the last three weekends. Yet, the fact that the Eagles simply do not know when they are beaten is just too much of a factor to ignore. Both the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs could very well feature in Super Bowl LVIII as the AFC representatives, and the Eagles have beat them both in recent weeks. Whilst divisional rivals the Dallas Cowboys have also looked very good, but they also left empty-handed when they recently came to Philadelphia.

If the Eagles want to really cement their status as the best team in the conference then a victory over the 49ers should be enough to do that, and I can see their determination to battle for every play shining through once more.

Traders’ Tip: Philadelphia Eagles To Win @ 23/20. A £10 bet at these odds could return £21.50.

 

A £10 5-Fold on the above selections could return £2,699.97.

 

*Odds correct at the time of publishing. Available to UK residents (excluding Northern Ireland) aged 18+ only. T&Cs apply. www.begambleaware.org

 

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