From the Trading Floor - Week 44

From the Trading Floor

Join Jay and DAZN Bet’s trading team as they bring you the pick of this week’s sports bets in “From The Trading Floor”

 

West Ham United v Arsenal – Carabao Cup Fourth Round – 19:30 – November 1

Carabao Cup fourth-round action takes place this week with sixteen teams all hoping to make it through to the Quarter-Finals. Two fixtures will be taking place on Tuesday night, whilst on Wednesday the first fixture to kick off sees West Ham United host Arsenal.

Both West Ham and Arsenal joined the competition in the previous round, and both booked their passage to this stage with 1-0 victories away to Lincoln and Brentford respectively.

After a promising start to the season West Ham having seemingly stalled somewhat, losing their last three in all competitions including a 1-0 defeat at home to Everton this past Sunday.

Arsenal are unbeaten in their last four outings, and their recent 5-0 victory over Sheffield United backed up impressive wins against both Sevilla and Manchester City, showing that the Gunners could once again be a team battling for silverware during the course of this season.

West Ham have won just one of their last sixteen games against Arsenal, and recent form suggests to me that their poor run of form against the Gunners is likely to continue. Arsenal striker Eddie Nketiah will be coming in to this fixture on the back of a hattrick against Sheffield United, whilst midfielder Declan Rice has produced some solid displays in recent games following his move from West Ham in the Summer.

Should Arsenal manager Mikael Arteta decide to stick with a strong squad then I can see them securing a relatively comfortable passage to the last eight inside regular time.

Traders’ Tip: Arsenal To Win @ 23/20. A £10 bet at these odds could return £21.50.

Manchester United v Newcastle United – Carabao Cup Fourth Round – 20:15 – November 1

If proceedings at the London Stadium aren’t to your liking then fear not, there’s a double dosage of Carabao Cup action on Wednesday, and the other choice might be more appealing as Manchester United host Newcastle United in a repeat of the 2022/23 Final.

When the two sides met at Wembley back in February it was Man Utd who emerged with the 2-0 victory, picking up their first trophy for six years, and manager Erik ten Hag will be hoping to lead them to glory again this season.

Man United’s form, however, has been fairly inconsistent for most of the season. They have won three of their last four games, but it could have been a lot worse for the Red Devils, especially in their victories over both Burnley and FC Copenhagen.

Newcastle come into the game having seen their eight-match unbeaten run ended with a 1-0 home defeat to Borussia Dortmund last week. They then followed this up with a 2-2 draw away to Wolves in the Premier League on Saturday evening, and they’ll be hoping for a return to winning ways sooner rather than later. Their scoring record is still decent, with twelve goals in their last five games, so they should be expected to provide a stern challenge to the host’s defence when they travel to Manchester on Wednesday.

Manchester United’s home record has been patchy, at best, this season, and three defeats in their last five at Old Trafford certainly isn’t the most positive platform to build on. However, they do seem to get the better of the Magpies whenever they play host, having not lost any of their last eight at home to Newcastle, and winning on six occasions.

There’s something about the way that they lift their game for Cup ties, and I have to believe that they’ll somehow manage to scrape through this one too. All six of those previous victories came with at least 3 goals being scored in the match, and I hope that this pattern will also continue on Wednesday night.  

Traders’ Tip: Manchester United To Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 9/4. A £10 bet at these odds could return £32.50.

Sale v Gloucester – Gallagher Premiership – 19:45 – November 3

With the 2023 Rugby World Cup now in the past it’s time to start focusing on the domestic scene once again, and what better place to start than at the AJ Bell stadium on Friday night for Sale Sharks against Gloucester?

The Gallagher Premiership season is three games gone, and already there isn’t a single team that boasts an unbeaten start. Both of these teams began their respective campaigns with two victories, but last weekend saw them both defeated for the first time this season.

For Sale it was a thumping 43-0 loss away to Exeter Chiefs to follow victories over Leicester and Northampton. The Sharks found themselves chasing the game very early at Exeter, trailing 10-0 after the first quarter of the game, and they were simply outclassed on a Sandy Park pitch that was battered by the elements.

Gloucester began the season with narrow victories over both Harlequins and Newcastle, but they were unable to capitalise on an early 3-0 lead against last season’s Premiership champions Saracens, falling to a 24-3 defeat with an error-strewn performance, including a drop from forward Zach Mercer after he had already crossed the Saracens line.

Home has been somewhere that Sale have thrived this year, winning their last eight Premiership matches in Salford, but they’ll have to effectively hit the reset button on their season if they want to put last week’s crushing defeat behind them.

Gloucester looked like the far more dominant side early doors against Saracens, but that fumble from Mercer seemed to be the catalyst for their own downfall, and they’ll be hoping to get off to an equally promising start when they make the trip north on Friday night.

It’s difficult to work out how both of these teams are going to react to their respective defeats, but there’s every reason to believe that this could be a lot closer than the odds are suggesting. Sale are relatively comfortable favourites to come away with a victory, but the early form suggests that this could be a close encounter. It could end up going either way and, on that basis, I’m inclined to take the visitors coming away with the victory, but I’m not expecting it to be an easy one.

Traders’ Tip: Gloucester To Win @ 14/5. A £10 bet at these odds could return £38.

Saracens v Leicester Tigers – Gallagher Premiership – 15:05 – November 4

More Gallagher Premiership action takes place over the course of the weekend, and Saracen’s game against Leicester is certainly one to watch on Saturday afternoon.

As mentioned earlier, Saracens come into the game following their 24-3 victory over Gloucester. Prior to this, the 2022/23 Champions had suffered successive defeats to both Exeter and Bath, with their opening round defeat at Sandy Park being far more comprehensive than that suffered by Sale, going down 65-10. There would have been every reason for supporters to panic after their subsequent 16-25 home loss to Bath, but their defensive resilience was back in full flow for that fixture with Sale, and they’ll be hoping to carry these positives into this weekend’s fixture against the Tigers.

Leicester also started with successive defeats but managed to pick up their first win of the season last weekend with a very late penalty against Bath.

It looked like it was going to be three straight losses for the Tigers, but a last-minute penalty from Jamie Shillcock ensured they left with a 26-25 victory, meaning that both teams will be entering this fixture following positive results.

When the International players return and both teams are back to full strength, you’d expect both Saracens and Leicester to start heading up the Premiership table.

This weekend is likely to be too early for the likes of Jamie George and Owen Farrell to return for the hosts, but they did show enough last week to suggest that their season is starting to turn in the right direction.

Leicester are also waiting on their big names to come back, including South African fly-half Handre Pollard, who kicked all of the Springbok’s points in their 12-11 victory over New Zealand on Saturday, but again this fixture might come to soon for him and the Tigers will likely have to make do without.

As a whole squad, Saracens have spent the best part of a decade dominating the domestic game, and I have to believe that this season will be another strong one for them. Tom Willis is one player who will know his number eight position is under threat when the more established England International in Billy Vunipola returns, and he made a strong claim for his spot with two tries against Gloucester last weekend. He’s one of a fair number of players I am expecting a big performance from against Leicester, and I can see that round determination leading Saracens to a fairly comfortable victory.

Traders’ Tip: Saracens -6.5 @ 10/11. A £10 bet at these odds could return £19.09.

Brazilian Grand Prix – Formula 1 – 20:00 – November 5

Just three races are remaining in the 2023 F1 season, and this Sunday sees the drivers make the trip from Mexico City to Sao Paolo for the Brazilian Grand Prix.

Last week’s outing in Mexico was yet another routine victory for Red Bull’s Max Verstappen who once again managed to dominate the field with a 13-second gap to second-placed Lewis Hamilton.

It was a sixteenth win from nineteen starts for the Dutch ace and one which surpassed the record for most wins in a single F1 season, which Verstappen himself set during last year’s campaign. The 26-year-old needs just three more victories to overtake Sebastian Vettel and move into third place in the all-time list of Grand Prix wins, and there’s every reason to believe that he’ll be looking to achieve this goal at the end of the 2023 season.

Given how one-sided proceedings have been, I can’t really look past yet another Verstappen victory, so I’ll be having a bit of interest in another market instead for this weekend.

Winning margins are often hard to predict, but I feel like the relatively short price on 13 seconds or more is well worth avoiding. In fact, you have to go all the way back to Mark Webber’s victory in 2011 to find the last time someone was able to win by such a convincing distance at Interlagos. Five of the last seven iterations of this race have fallen within the 6-12 second gap, and this looks to be a relatively attractive price this time around too.

Traders’ Tip: Winning Margin – 6 to 12 Seconds @ 9/4. A £10 bet at these odds could return £32.50.

A £10 5-Fold on the above selections could return £1,647.46.

 

*Odds correct at time of publishing. Available to UK residents (excluding Northern Ireland) aged 18+ only. T&Cs apply. www.begambleaware.org

 

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