From the Trading Floor -Week 43

From the Trading Floor

Join Jay and DAZN Bet’s trading team as they bring you the pick of this week’s sports bets in “From The Trading Floor”, with notable games from the Champions League, The Rugby World Cup and the Manchester Derby in the Premier League.

 

Manchester United v FC Copenhagen – UEFA Champions League – Group A – 20:00 – October 24

Champions League football returns this week and my focus on Tuesday will be on the encounter between Manchester United and FC Copenhagen at Old Trafford.

Despite scoring five times in their opening two fixtures, Manchester United currently find themselves rooted to the bottom of Group A after 4-3 and 3-2 losses to Bayern Munich and Galatasaray respectively.

The loss to Galatasaray put a huge dent in United’s chances of progressing from the group, and they now need to ensure they get a positive result against Copenhagen in order to keep themselves within reach of the top two.

United have won both Premier League fixtures since that defeat, picking up 2-1 victories against both Brentford and Sheffield United, and they’ll be hoping to make it three wins in a row when they face the FC Copenhagen.

The Danish champions currently sit a point above the Red Devils following a 2-2 draw with Galatasaray and a 2-1 loss to the German giants, despite leading in both games. They currently sit four points clear at the top of the Danish Superliga, however, they’ve won just one of their last four fixtures, a 2-1 win over 11th-placed Vejle on Saturday.

Man United will know that there’s a growing sense of urgency in them picking up a first win in this season’s competition, and Tuesday should finally be the night they pick up three points. Scotland’s Scott McTominay three goals in his last two appearances for his club and, as mentioned two weeks ago, has also been in inspired form for his country too.

His six goals have already helped Scotland to secure their place at Euro 2024, and he even had an effort ruled out against Spain during their most recent qualifying fixture.

In the absence of Brazilian midfielder Casemiro, who is missing through suspension following his dismissal against Galatasaray, I would expect McTominay to maintain his place in the starting line-up, and I could see him being one of the players who could inspire the Red Devils to a much-needed victory in the Champions League.  

Traders’ Tip: Scott McTominay To Score Anytime @ 10/3. A £10 bet at these odds could return £43.33.

 

Newcastle United v Borussia Dortmund – UEFA Champions League – Group F – 20:00 – October 25

Following a run of eight games without defeat, Newcastle are laying down the foundations for another solid season on all fronts, and they’ll be hoping to continue their strong run of form when they welcome Borussia Dortmund to St James’ Park on Wednesday.

Newcastle have become almost unplayable at home in recent weeks picking up five straight victories in all competitions, including Saturday’s 4-0 Premier League success against Crystal Palace, and their 4-1 rout of French giants PSG at the start of the month.

The prospect of travelling to the North-East must feel like a daunting one for any opposition given their recent form, and they’ll be hoping to utilize this to their advantage when they welcome a Dortmund team that narrowly missed out on winning their domestic league last season.

Despite being unbeaten in their first eight Bundesliga matches this time around, the visitors currently find themselves bottom of Group F following a 2-0 loss to PSG and a goalless draw with AC Milan. A failure to win on Wednesday would leave them with a huge disadvantage if they want to stand any chance of qualifying from one of the toughest Champions League groups in recent memory.

Newcastle are relatively strong favourites to pick up maximum points here, such has been the impressive nature of their recent performances, and it’s hard to ignore just how good they’ve been. They’ve scored 12 goals in their last four outings, with eight different players finding the net, showing that there’s a real strength throughout the squad, and it’s hard to see how Dortmund can put an end to their resurgence.

I have to side with the Magpies picking up the victory here, and four clean sheets in their five home fixtures, paired with Dortmund’s inability to score in this season’s Champions League so far, makes me feel like they could get through this fixture without conceding.

Traders’ Tip: Newcastle To Win To Nil @ 2/1. A £10 bet at these odds could return £30.

 

Argentina v England – 2023 Rugby World Cup – Bronze Final – 20:00 – October 27

The 2023 Rugby World Cup comes to a conclusion this weekend, but before Saturday’s final there’s the small matter of Friday’s third-placed play-off game between beaten semi-finalists Argentina and England.

Argentina were well and truly outplayed in their last four game against New Zealand last Friday, losing 44-6 to a rampant All Blacks squad. However, they can take plenty of positives from reaching their third World Cup semi-final and outlasting the likes of Ireland and France in the process.

It was a real wake-up call for the Pumas, who had shown incredible spirit in overcoming Wales in the quarter-finals, but a failure to up their game against world-class opposition last weekend meant that they were unable to reach a maiden World Cup final.

England were far more unfortunate in their semi-final defeat against South Africa. I said last week that I believed that their kicking game could make life difficult for their opponents, and they came within minutes of sealing a monumental victory against the reigning champions.

England didn’t even manage to grab a try during the encounter, with Owen Farrell scoring all fifteen of their points, including a drop goal partway through the second half, but a 78th-minute Handre Pollard penalty proved to be the decisive moment in a 15-16 loss to the South Africans, leaving England playing for minor spoils instead.

Despite having a squad full of experienced heads, the manner of their late defeat against the Springboks is sure to have completely deflated this spirited England squad, and putting that to the back of their minds knowing they could have been featuring in the final 24 hours later, is going to be a huge hurdle to overcome.

Argentina, meanwhile, will be desperate to bounce back from such a comprehensive defeat, and will undoubtedly prove to be much sterner opposition for England as a result.

The opening weekend meeting between the two saw England emerge victorious, but I question whether or not there’s still going to be the same desire to win as there was at the start of September. The price on Argentina avenging that defeat is far too big to ignore, especially when you consider that a large number of this ageing England squad will inevitably be absent when they next play a World Cup game in just under four years.

Traders’ Tip: Argentina To Win @ 12/5. A £10 bet at these odds could return £34.

 

New Zealand v South Africa – 2023 Rugby World Cup – Final – 20:00 – October 28

Following on from the previous day’s affairs, the real showcase of this year’s World Cup takes place as the Stade de France on Saturday night when New Zealand meet South Africa in the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final.

There was a real sense of belief at the start of the tournament that the Webb Ellis Cup might return to the northern hemisphere for the first time since 2003. However, it’s a case of the old guard reigning supreme, as the two most successful teams in World Cup history go head-to-head for the right to lift the trophy for a fourth time.

South Africa have come through the knockout stages with two victories by the narrowest of margins, albeit in contrasting circumstances.

The first was a game where they needed their defence to hold firm during the closing stages when faced with an expectant Parisian crowd, where they managed to hold out for a 29-28 victory against hosts France.

The second was a fightback from the brink of elimination, turning round a nine-point deficit in the final twelve minutes, against a more-than-game England team, to secure a 16-15 success.

Those two different scenarios, paired with their Pool stage defeat to Ireland, is almost the perfect preparation ahead of the final as it has given the Springboks the chance to experience the full spectrum of in-game situations.

New Zealand did have to fend off a number one ranked Ireland side during their 28-24 win in the quarter-finals, but they had a much more serene route to the final with a 44-6 victory over Argentina in the last round.

Not having to go through that late drama, alongside the fact that they’ve had an extra day to rest, is sure to be the main factor that works in the All Black’s favour, but the reality is that this is an extremely difficult game to call.

Taking any potential pre-game sanctions out of the question, I have to side with the view I’ve had over the past three weeks. That being that New Zealand have provided the most impressive Rugby I’ve seen during the competition. Since their opening game defeat to France, they’ve grown increasingly stronger. They completely outplayed Namibia, Italy and Uruguay in their remaining Pool matches, with their fluidity at times reminding me of some of the great New Zealand teams of past tournaments.

This dominance was also in full flow at times during their semi-final success, and I struggle to see how South Africa are going to cope against a squad that seems to keep going from strength to strength.

What’s likely to still feel fresh in the minds of New Zealand is that the build-up to the competition saw them suffer a record-breaking defeat at the hands of this Springboks team. Their 28 point loss at the end of August was the largest margin of defeat in their 120-year history, and they’ll no doubt also be desperate to avenge that humiliation this Saturday.

I’ll be siding with a New Zealand victory but, regardless of the result, this feels destined to be yet another memorable World Cup Final, so it’s definitely worth taking the time to watch this just for the spectacle.

Traders’ Tip: New Zealand To Win @ 5/6. A £10 bet at these odds could return £18.33.

 

Manchester United v Manchester City – Premier League – 16:30 – October 29

I’m rounding off this week with a trip back to where it started, Old Trafford, for Sunday’s much anticipated Derby between Manchester United and Manchester City.

The visitors got their Premier League campaign back on track with a 2-1 victory last Saturday, following successive defeats against Arsenal and Wolves, whilst the hosts have picked up consecutive 2-1 wins against both Crystal Palace and Sheffield United to climb into the top half of the table and close on the top four teams to just five points.

Both will be playing in the Champions League during the early part of the week, so it remains to be seen whether or not they’ll be entering this specific fixture in a positive frame of mind. Although I am expecting them to emerge victorious from their European exploits, I feel it would be best to avoid looking past their midweek encounters to pick a match-winner at the weekend.

Therefore I’ve attempted to source some value from elsewhere. I can’t go for McTominay to score again in the hope that it lands, as this would also feel very counterproductive (watch him fail to score on Tuesday and end up scoring on Sunday instead!). It therefore feels like the sensible option will be to opt for another encounter filled with plenty of goals.

Both teams have got on the scoresheet and a minimum of three goals have been scored in eight of United’s last eleven games, whilst the same is also true in seven of City’s last ten. The last four meetings between the two have seen at least three goals, including last season’s FA Cup Final, with both teams also getting on the scoresheet on each of these occasions.

Seeing this same permutation being offered at marginal odds against on Sunday is certainly a tempting proposition, especially when you know that both sides will be hoping to get one up on their close city rivals.

Traders’ Tip: Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 Goals @ 21/20. A £10 bet at these odds could return £20.50.

A £10 5-Fold on the above selections could return £895.74.

 

*Odds correct at time of publishing. Available to UK residents (excluding Northern Ireland) aged 18+ only. T&Cs apply. www.begambleaware.org

 

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