From the Trading Floor - Week 42

From the Trading Floor

Join Jay and DAZN Bet’s trading team as they bring you the pick of this week’s sports bets in “From The Trading Floor”

England v Italy – UEFA Euro 2024 Qualifying – Group C – 19:45 – October 17

With Spain and Scotland now both assured of automatic qualification to next summer’s tournament, Group A is pretty much done and dusted. Things are still very much alive in Group C though, and Tuesday’s Wembley encounter between England and Italy gives the hosts the perfect opportunity to certify their own spot in Germany next year.

Victory for England would put them six points clear of both Ukraine and Italy and would certify their place as group winners courtesy of their superior head to head record against both teams. A draw would also be enough to wrap up qualification, but potentially securing top spot would have to wait a bit longer.

Even in defeat qualification shouldn’t be an issue for the Three Lions as victory in either of their final two fixtures next month against North Macedonia or Malta would still see them safely through to the main tournament.

Italy, meanwhile, would go level on points with England should they win, putting them in a commanding position over the third placed Ukrainians but, even if they lose, it still looks like the final group game between Ukraine and Italy in November will be a ‘winner take all’ affair for the second group qualification spot.

England come in to this match off the back of two Friendly victories, first they managed to beat a resurgent Scotland 3-1 at Hampden Park in September, and last Friday evening a much changed line-up managed a relatively comfortable 1-0 victory over Australia. The main bulk of the first team should return for this affair however, with Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden all expected to regain their place amongst the starting 11.

Italy have now gone four unbeaten since their Nations League semi-final defeat to Spain in June, including a 2-1 success over Ukraine last month. However, their team feels slightly light in attacking options with the experienced forward duo of Chiesa and Immobile both missing through injury, and the Premier League duo of Nicolo Zaniolo and Sandro Tonali absent for off-field reasons.

The Italians will likely be happy to take a point out of London, knowing that it will give them the upper hand over Ukraine, so I don’t expect them to come flying of the blocks, their growing list of absentees also leaves them looking relatively week up front, and that leaves me to believe this could easily end up as a stalemate.

Traders’ Tip: Draw @ 11/4. A £10 bet at these odds could return £37.50.

 

Peru v Argentina  – CONMEBOL World Cup 2026 Qualifying – 03:00 – October 18

Whereas International football across Europe is focused on next summer’s UEFA Euro 2024, other continents have already begun their qualification stages for the 2026 World Cup.

South America teams have already played three of their 18 round robin matches, and they’ll end this week over a fifth of the way through the qualification process.

Reigning World Cup champions Argentina have started with a 100% record in CONMEBOL qualifying. Ecuador, Paraguay and Bolivia have already been brushed aside by Lionel Messi and Co. and they’ll look to continue their march towards the northern side of the hemisphere when they travel to Peru in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

Peru have picked up just one point so far, in a goalless draw away to Paraguay and, following 1-0 and 2-0 losses to both Brazil and Chile respectively, they are also yet to score in any of their three outings.

With 11 straight wins under their belt, and a trip to a country that has won just one of their last seven matches, it feels like an Argentina victory is going to be on the cards. It’s hard to ignore Peru’s inability to score goals and, given that they’ve only managed to conjure up one shot on target during qualifying so far, the safe choice for me is to take a win to nil for the rampant visitors.   

Traders’ Tip: Argentina To Win To Nil @ 10/11. A £10 bet at these odds could return £19.09.

 

Argentina v New Zealand – 2023 Rugby World Cup – Semi Final – 20:00 – October 20

Following an impressive quarter-final victory over Wales, Argentina will hoping to take one more step towards immortality when they go toe-to-toe with New Zealand at the famous Stade de France on Friday night.

Last Sunday’s success was a sublime showing from an Argentinian side who managed to turn a 0-10 deficit into a 29-17 success in Marseille. The scoreline may have been slightly flattering with the game remaining very much alive until fly-half Nicolas Sanchez’s 77th minute try, but it was a battling performance from start to finish as the Pumas continue to go from strength to strength following their opening loss to England at the start of September.

It will be a third appearance at this stage for Argentina, however, they are yet to experience the thrills of a World Cup Final, having previously lost at the same stage in both 2007 and 2015.

Standing in their way will be a New Zealand team who also managed to somewhat upset the odds with a bruising victory over a number one ranked Ireland.

The All Blacks were made to work throughout the entire 80 minutes of their 28-24 success against the Irish, but their ability to keep the Irish constantly chasing the game, despite having two players sent to the sin bin, ensured that they were able to condemn their opponents to yet another defeat in the last eight, as well as their first loss in 18 outings.

It’s been a remarkable turnaround for New Zealand who were far from convincing during their opening defeat to France, and the 39 tries they have scored since that early setback is just one indicator of how much of a threat they pose to their opponents on Friday.

Despite this, Argentina know that they have no reason to fear the three time World Cup winners. The Pumas famously picked up a 25-18 success in Christchurch in August of last year to show that they can be more than a match against their far more decorated opposition, but New Zealand have since had the better of their counterparts, winning their last two head-to-head fixtures by an aggregate score of 94-15.

I don’t think that any team has seen more of a marked improvement during this competition when compared to New Zealand, I mentioned last week how I was mesmerised at times when watching them score with ease against Uruguay, and Saturday’s battling victory over a previously indomitable Ireland was a clear indication of just how much they’ve learnt from that defeat to France.

Argentina have to be given credit for making it to this stage, but Friday is sure to be a real step up in intensity when compared to their opposition up to this point.

Knowing just how well the All Blacks can play I feel I have an obligation in taking them to comfortably book their place in the final on the 28th. Argentina have simply had no answer in the last couple of meetings between the two, and I can see them suffering another crushing defeat when they meet once again this weekend.

Traders’ Tip: New Zealand -17.5 @ 5/6. A £10 bet at these odds could return £18.33.

 

England v South Africa – 2023 Rugby World Cup – Semi Final – 20:00 – October 21

Congratulations to anyone who genuinely believed that England would be the best performing team from the northern hemisphere. Not only that, give yourself a firm pat on the back if you thought they’d be the only team left undefeated heading in to this stage of the competition.

Granted, England’s path to the last four looked relatively comfortable from the start. They knew they were likely to avoid all the ‘big names’ until the semi-finals before the tournament even began, and that pathway was made all the more straightforward following the Pool stage exit of Australia.

Yet, throughout this competition, all they seem to have done is make things more difficult than they realistically should have been. From the fourth minute dismissal of Tom Curry in their opening game against Argentina, to their recent struggles in beating both Samoa and Fiji, England have ridden their luck numerous times, yet still they’ve managed to somehow haul themselves over the line.

South Africa should realistically have no reason to fear what lies ahead. They’re the defending champions, they’ve been disciplined throughout the competition and last week they pulled through a remarkable contest against hosts France and came away with the narrowest of victories. Where there’s been a lot of disorganisation and uncertainty surrounding the England camp, South Africa have been one of the fancied teams from the start, and everything in that sense should point towards a comfortable Springboks win.

Yet there’s something that makes me feel like it’s going to be far from a walk in the park for the vastly superior team.

England have been in such disarray in recent times that even the announcement of Owen Farrell’s inclusion in the starting XV brings about boos from their own supporters. The preference of Farrell ahead of George Ford on Sunday might not have gone down well from the stands, yet the twenty points he added with his boot, including two successful kicks in the closing few minutes, was ultimately the deciding factor in their 30-24 success against Fiji.

That ability to kick themselves out of trouble and keep themselves in matches, whether through Ford or Farrell, has worked wonders for the Lions so far, and it’s the one factor that could give them any realistic chance of success on Saturday.

Ultimately I still think that South Africa are going to have too much in the tank, and they should be able to secure themselves a final against New Zealand, but I can see England giving them a real run for their money and making it very tricky by constantly keeping the scoreboard ticking over. Nothing is ever straightforward with English rugby anymore, but at least it can be entertaining!

Traders’ Tip: England +13.5 @ 5/6. A £10 bet at these odds could return £18.33.

 

Aston Villa v West Ham United – Premier League – 16:30 – October 22

With the International break out of the way we can get back to Premier League action this weekend. There’s a stacked fixture list on Saturday afternoon, leaving the game between Aston Villa and West Ham as the sole match in England’s top flight on Sunday.

However, fear not football fans, as this really could be a cracking encounter at Villa Park.

Villa and West Ham have started pretty well domestically, both are currently sitting inside the top 7 places and look well set to challenge for spots in European competition next season alongside their current involvement in UEFA tournaments this year.

The hosts have quietly built themselves a strong run of form at home in the Premier League, winning their last 10 league games at Villa Park and conceding just four times in the process. Their most recent success was their 6-1 thrashing of Brighton, where Ollie Watkins managed to bag himself a hat-trick for the second time this season.

I had a feeling West Ham would have struggled without Declan Rice this season, but they’ve certainly proven me wrong with two wins from two in the UEFA Europa League and a decent league position. They’ve only won one of their last 4 Premier League matches, including recent losses to both Liverpool and Man City, but they’ll certainly feel confident in their ability to bounce back to winning ways sooner rather than later.

Premier League matches involving these teams are also averaging a fairly decent scoring rate, with both teams seeing six of their eight top flight games containing three or more goals, so it feels like we could be in for another goal filled afternoon in the midlands on Sunday.

Aston Villa’s home record is certainly hard to ignore, so pairing a Villa win with at least three goals in the contest looks to be the best option here for what should be an enjoyable game of Premier League football.

Traders’ Tip: Aston Villa To Win & Over 25 Goals @ 6/4. A £10 bet at these odds could return £25.

 

A £10 5-Fold on the above selections could return £601.56.

 

*Odds correct at time of publishing. Available to UK residents (excluding Northern Ireland) aged 18+ only. T&Cs apply. www.begambleaware.org

 

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