From the Trading Floor -Week 38

From the Trading Floor

Join Jay and DAZN Bet’s trading team as they bring you the pick of this week’s sports bets in “From The Trading Floor”

 

Manchester City v Crvena Zvezda – UEFA Champions League – Group G – 20:00 – September 19

It was just over three months ago when Rodri fired Manchester City to their maiden UEFA Champions League success, completing a historic treble in the process, and this Tuesday night they will get their defence of their European crown underway when they welcome Serbia’s Crvena Zvezda to the Etihad Stadium.

Manchester City may have only played five games in the Premier League so far this season, but they already look well set to continue their dominance from the previous twelve months.

Five wins from five, two points clear at the top of the league, and Ballon d’Or contender Erling Haaland already has seven goals, including a hat trick, to his name. The blue side of Manchester are the favourites to win every competition they are involved in this season, and it’s hard to look past them adding another trophy haul to their vasty increasing cabinet.

Perennial Serbian champions Crvena Zvezda, or Red Star Belgrade to the purists, romped to their sixth straight domestic title last season, finishing a comfortable twenty points ahead of the field. However, the one time champions of Europe are far from a dominant force outside of their own country.

This will be only their third appearance in the group stages of the Champions League, and their first since the 2019/20 season, having lost to Omonia Nicosia, Sheriff Tiraspol and Maccabi Haifa during their past three qualifying campaigns, and it certainly feels like there’s the potential for the hosts to run riot when the two teams meet.

City were pretty much unstoppable at home in last season’s competition, winning all six of their Champions League games at the Etihad, including the 7-0 demolition of Leipzig, and 3-0 and 4-0 wins over Bayern Munich and Real Madrid respectively en route to the final.

It’s no surprise that Manchester City are so short that they’re almost unbackable, but it’s very much a justified favouritism for one of Europe’s most dominant forces. It feels like it’s going to be a case of just how many they feel like scoring, and I can potentially see them threatening the record margin of victory in this competition on Tuesday as a result.

I can think of worse bets this week than taking the hosts to cover a five goal margin in this one. The odds on offer look particularly appealing, especially when you consider how they were able to prevail over some of Europe’s finest teams with relative ease in front of their home supporters last season.

Traders’ Tip: Manchester City -4.5 @ 13/5. A £10 bet at these odds could return £36.

 

Bayern Munich v Manchester United – UEFA Champions League – Group A – 20:00 – September 20

When looking at the Champions League fixtures for Wednesday night, it feels almost poetic to see that one of Group A’s opening fixtures will be between two of Europe’s football giants, and a repeat of the 1998/99 Champions League final when Bayern Munich host Manchester United.

That fixture 24 years ago remains one of the most memorable Finals in history, not only for the dramatic injury time turnaround that occurred on that famous night at the Camp Nou, but also because it sealed a monumental treble for Manchester United, a feat that would not be matched until their neighbours’ success in Istanbul just three months ago.

In terms of this particular fixture, there now seems to be fair gulf between the most successful German and English league winners.

Bayern won an 11th straight Bundesliga title in 2022/23, courtesy of an 89th minute winner on the last day of the season, whilst Man United finished 14 points behind Manchester City in third place in the Premier League, stretching their Premier League drought to ten years.

Even the start of this season has both teams seemingly world’s apart. Bayern have started their domestic campaign off relatively solidly, they are currently unbeaten in the Bundesliga, and share top spot with Leverkusen. United have started with three defeats from five in the Premier League including their recent 3-1 home loss to Brighton, a result which saw many Red Devils’ supporters vent their frustration towards manager Erik ten Haag.

There’s a definite frailty in defence when it comes to this United team, only Wolves and Burnley have conceded more goals in the Premier League so far this season, and I worry how they are going to cope with one of Europe’s most prolific goalscorers, that being England’s Harry Kane.

Kane has opened the scoring in Bayern’s last two home fixtures, and I feel that he’s a decent enough price to make it three in a row on Wednesday night against a familiar foe. 

Traders’ Tip: Harry Kane To Score First @ 3/1. A £10 bet at these odds could return £40.

 

Argentina v Samoa – 2023 Rugby World Cup – Pool D – 16:45 – September 22

The Rugby World Cup enters the third round of fixtures this weekend with plenty of pools starting to take shape. Friday’s encounter between Argentina and Samoa in Pool D definitely looks like it could be a very intriguing one.

With England winning their opening two games against both Argentina and Japan, this fixture between Los Pumas and Samoa has the feel of a potential showdown for second place in the pool, and I have to say that I don’t think that the winner is as clear as the odds might suggest.

Argentina head in to the encounter as very strong favourites, they are classed as a tier 1 nation, and they have a wealth of experience in playing games consistently against the best teams in the world. However, Samoa are a nation that have shown in recent times that they are far from pushovers when it comes to facing the more elite International teams.

Less than a month ago the Samoans ran a number one ranked Irish squad very close in a warm-up friendly, with a 64th minute try from Ireland hooker Rob Herring eventually proving to be the difference between the two. They have also beat tier 1 opposition in Japan, finishing an admirable second to Fiji in the process, and come in to this fixture following 10 wins from their last 13 games, including their strong 43-10 victory in their opening Pool D fixture against Chile.

Meanwhile, Argentina have won just three of their previous 12 Internationals, including a warm-up success against a lowly ranked Spanish team, as well as victories against England and Australia squads that have both struggled for form. Los Pumas were far from impressive in their opening round 27-10 defeat to England, showing ill-discipline in handing their opposition a victory which came solely from the boot of George Ford, despite playing almost the entirety of the match with a man advantage following the early dismissal of England’s Tom Curry.

Argentina probably should be favourites, but I honestly believe that Samoa do have the potential to cause somewhat of an upset on Friday night, especially if their opposition are as erratic as they were in their opening fixture.

In similar situations where I’ve given the underdogs a fighting chance I’ve been inclined to take them on the handicap, but a relatively big price on Samoa to win the match looks far too tempting to turn down, especially considering how evenly matched these two are in the world rankings.

As a result, I have to be a bit bolder and take the Samoans to follow in the footsteps of their Fijian neighbours this past Sunday by picking up a monumental win against one of the fancied teams in their pool, and taking a huge stride towards the quarter finals in the process.

Traders’ Tip: Samoa To Win @ 5/1. A £10 bet at these odds could return £60.

 

Brentford v Everton – Premier League – 17:30 – September 23

Five games into this Premier League season, and I’m still trying to figure out what on earth is going so wrong at Everton. On Saturday evening they make the trip to London to face Brentford on what could be yet another disappointing day for Toffees fans.

I had reason for optimism following their 2-2 draw with Sheffield United prior to the International break. Despite not picking up the three points, I felt that scoring twice at Bramhall Lane was going to be the kickstart their season so desperately needed and that goals were going to start coming more freely as a result. However, they provided very little, if any, attacking threat during their 1-0 home defeat against Arsenal on Sunday, and now it feels like we’re back to a position where it’s difficult to see where Everton’s goals are going to come from.

Brentford are a bit of an oddity in terms of trying to gauge how they’re likely to perform over the course of this season. Promising results against both Spurs and Fulham to get their season underway have been followed by back-to-back home draws and their most recent 1-0 defeat away to Newcastle, leaving them without a win in their past three games. However, the Bees have at least managed to find some sort of goalscoring form, and the loss at St James’ Park was the first time they had failed to score this season.

Again, I am struggling to find a reason to side with Everton getting anything from this one. They’re back to having a complete lack of confidence in front of goal, and the simple fact is that if you can’t score, then it’s impossible to win.

Brentford are the favourites, and rightly so in my opinion, and I’ll be taking them picking up three points on Saturday.

Traders’ Tip: Brentford To Win @ 15/20. A £10 bet at these odds could return £17.50.

 

South Africa v Ireland – 2023 Rugby World Cup – Pool B – 20:00 – September 23

When looking at the rest of the World Cup fixtures over the course of this weekend, it’s clear that the tie of the round has to be Saturday evening’s Pool B encounter at the Stade de France between South Africa and Ireland.

In terms of any sporting fixture between a number one and number two ranked competitor, you surely have to expect that this one is going to be a memorable encounter, and it feels like there’s every possibility that this might not be the only time these two face each other at the famous French stadium, as both teams will really fancy their chances of making it to the final at the same venue at the end of October.

Both teams will enter this encounter after starting their campaigns with successive victories. South Africa have conceded just three points during their opening two fixtures against Romania and Scotland, accumulating a total of 13 tries, with 11 of those coming against Romania. Whilst Ireland have scored a total of 141 points during their two games against Tonga and Romania.

Ireland have been literally unbeatable for over 12 months, and are now on a stretch of 16 straight victories, including a 19-16 success over Saturday’s opponents in November of last year. However, the South Africans might have arguably had the more impressive build-up to the competition, especially when securing a 28 point victory over New Zealand at the end of August, the heaviest defeat ever suffered by the All Blacks.

On the basis of the above, it’s easy to make a claim for either side emerging victorious and, with the belief that this is truly a fifty-fifty game. It could so easily go either way, so the value choice for me has to be the team that offers the better return and, in this instance, that is Ireland. Neither team has looked particularly vulnerable, and both will still be expected to progress from Pool B regardless of the result but momentum heading into the last eight will be crucial, and we should expect an instant classic as a result.

Traders’ Tip: Ireland To Win @ 6/5. A £10 bet at these odds could return £22.

 

A £10 5-Fold on the above selections could return £3,326.40.

 

 

*Odds correct at time of publishing. Available to UK residents (excluding Northern Ireland) aged 18+ only. T&Cs apply. www.begambleaware.org

 

 

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