From The Trading Floor (18)

From The Trading Floor

Join Jay and Dazn Bet’s trading team as they bring you the pick of this week’s sports bets in “From The Trading Floor”

Arsenal v Chelsea – Premier League  – 20:00 – May 2

There are four crucial Premier League fixtures taking place between Tuesday and Thursday this week, starting with the encounter at the Emirates Stadium between Arsenal and Chelsea.

Arsenal’s hopes of winning the first Premier League trophy in 19 years have all but evaporated during the last few weeks, with the Gunners picking up just three points from a four-game winless run. A 4-1 defeat away to Man City last Wednesday, coupled with City’s 2-1 win at Fulham on Sunday, means that Arsenal are now a point behind the Manchester club, having also played a game more.

Chelsea, meanwhile, continue to fall into a seemingly endless pit of despair. 2-0 defeats at home to both Real Madrid and Brentford in recent weeks has taken their winless run to eight, including a run of five successive defeats. November 1993 was the last time Chelsea managed to achieve both of those feats and, on that occasion, they would in fact endure a six-game losing streak. With the sixth loss, ironically enough, coming at the hands of Arsenal.

Despite Arsenal’s own poor run of form, it is becoming increasingly difficult to convince myself that Chelsea are capable of pulling off a result against anyone at the moment, especially with the Blues scoring just once in their last seven games. I still, however, see signs of desire from the Arsenal players, and they’ll need to pick up three points here if they want to capitalize on any kind of slip-up from leaders Manchester City.

Alan Smith and Ian Wright scored Arsenal’s goals as part of a 2-0 victory during Chelsea’s losing run way back in November of 1993, and I like the look of the same scoreline on Tuesday night.

Traders’ Tip: Arsenal to win 2-0 @ 13/2. A £10 bet at these odds could return £75.

 

Manchester City v West Ham United – Premier League – 20:00 – May 3

England’s two remaining representatives in European competition will meet at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday night, when Premier League leaders Manchester City host relegation-battling West Ham United.

The previously mentioned 2-1 victory over Fulham at the weekend was City’s eighth straight Premier League win. There’s really not much else that can be said about a Man City team that is currently undefeated in 18 matches across all competitions, and one that looks increasingly likely to secure a Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League treble.

West Ham, on the other hand, seemingly can’t quite manage to shake of the potential threat of relegation from England’s top flight. A 4-0 victory over Bournemouth just over a week ago had moved the Hammers up to 13th in the table, but back to back defeats against both Liverpool and Crystal Palace, paired with results elsewhere, has seen them fall back down to 15th, just five points ahead of 18th placed Leicester.

The hosts are extremely strong favourites to come away with three points here and, after picking up twelve home wins in a row since the start of 2023, it’s unlikely that we will see anything other than a comfortable home victory. City have scored at least three times in each of their last 7 fixtures at the Etihad, so taking them to continue this run of form seems to be a fairly decent option.

Traders’ Tip: Man City to Score Over 2.5 Goals @ 17/20. A £10 bet at these odds could return £18.50.

 

Brighton v Manchester United – Premier League – 20:00 – May 4

Following their FA Cup Semi-Final encounter just under a fortnight ago, Brighton and Manchester United will square off once more on Thursday, with both teams hoping to bolster their respective hopes of qualifying for European competitions next season.

Manchester United are strongly placed to secure Champions League football for next season. They sit fourth in the Premier League table and will enter this fixture at least four points ahead of fifth-placed Liverpool, depending on the Merseyside club’s result at home to Fulham on Wednesday.

United’s form may have been slightly indifferent over the past few weeks, with just two wins over the course of 90 minutes from their last six outings, but they’ll feel more than confident of securing a spot inside the Premier League’s top four over the course of the next four weeks.

Brighton will start the day in 8th place, just two points behind both Spurs and Aston Villa, with this being one of three games they have in hand over both clubs, and they’ll be hoping to play in some form of European competition next season for the first time in their 122 year history.

When these two faced each other at Wembley, United emerged victorious following a penalty shoot-out after a goalless draw, but Brighton were arguably the better team over the course of 120 minutes and probably should have progressed to the final based on performance.

I said during my preview of that fixture that I felt the two teams were evenly poised, but I have to take a different approach this time around. The Seagulls will come into this fixture having won seven of their last nine games at the Amex Stadium. They have scored 14 goals across their last three matches at home, including a 6-0 demolition of Wolves on Saturday. Manchester United’s recent form on the road has also been far from impressive, with just two victories over the course of 90 minutes in their last 8 trips away from Old Trafford.

I feel that Brighton deserves to end this season by securing a spot in Europe, and I hope they don’t fade during the final month of the season. I’ve seen enough from them to convince me that they are more than capable of picking up a vital three points on Thursday night. 

Traders’ Tip: Brighton to Win @ Evens. A £10 bet at these odds could return £20.

 

Saul Alvarez v John Ryder – Approx. 01:00 – May 7

Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez will fight in Mexico for the first time in over a decade when he defends his undisputed super middleweight title for the second time.

His first defence came back in September, where he defeated Gennady Golovkin by a unanimous decision to mark the end of their four-year trilogy, and this weekend’s bout against John Ryder feels like it might be more than Canelo simply “going through the motions” in order to avoid surrendering his WBO super middleweight title.

Ryder might have lost five times during his career, but his fifth-round stoppage victory over fellow Brit Zach Parker to become the interim WBO champion was arguably his best showing to date, handing Parker his first career defeat in the process.

Although Alvarez will be expected to come through this one victorious, especially with the entirety of his hometown Guadalajara crowd behind him, I get the feeling that his opponent is more than capable of causing a bit of a headache in the process.

Ryder has managed to safely navigate through a couple of hard-hitting fighters in his last two outings, most recently against Parker in November, and also with a Split decision victory over hard-hitting American Daniel Jacobs last February.

Alvarez himself needed 12 rounds to get past Jacobs via unanimous decision back in 2019, and it feels like the Mexican might not necessarily get the job done within the distance, as the odds seem to suggest.

It would take an almost flawless effort from Ryder to get the better of Canelo, and I simply cannot see him outboxing the best super middleweight on the planet for the majority of the bout. I do, however, believe that he’s more than capable of taking the Mexican the distance, and the 11/4 on offer for Alvarez to win on points looks very tempting as a result.   

Traders’ Tip: Alvarez To Win On Points @ 14/5. A £10 bet at these odds could return £38.

 

Miami Grand Prix – Formula 1 – 22:30 – May 7

Round five of the 2023 Formula 1 season takes place in Miami this weekend, with the race for the Drivers’ Championship already looking like it’s set to be a straight battle between the two Red Bull drivers.

Last week I was behind Sergio Perez picking up the win in Baku, and he delivered in style! Emerging victorious in both Saturday’s Sprint race and Sunday’s Grand Prix in Azerbaijan.

Checo’s success, ahead of teammate Max Verstappen, ensured a Red Bull 1-2 for the third time this season. This was a clear indicator that the Austrian team are a long way ahead of the other constructors, especially when you consider that the only time another driver has finished within 15 seconds of the two Red Bull’s was following the farcical ending in Melbourne at the start of last month.

Verstappen once again enters the race as the strong odds on chance, but we’ve seen more than enough from Perez to show that he can definitely go toe-to-toe with his teammate. There are just six points between the two at the top of the Drivers’ Championship, with Max leading, and both having shared two victories each.

Sergio is a slightly shorter price to prevail when compared to the 4/1 on offer last week, but I still feel he represents the value selection in Florida.

Traders’ Tip: Sergio Perez To Win @ 3/1. A £10 bet at these odds could return £40.

 

A £10 5-Fold on the above selections could return £4218.

 

*Odds correct at the time of publishing. Available to UK residents (excluding Northern Ireland) aged 18+ only. T&Cs apply. www.begambleaware.org

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