January 4, 2024
Weekly NFL Betting Tips and Picks by David Tarbet
NFL Betting Tips researched and analysed by David Tarbet.
Each week David looks at the best NFL games and gives you a breakdown of the action. Predictions, picks and NFL betting tips from his side of the globe. Based Stateside, David has over 20 years of experience picking the best games and doing the research and game analysis for you, so you can sit back and enjoy the game.
Are you ready for some football?
NFL Betting Tips and Picks for the Superbowl
Before we get onto the big game a quick recap of the Conference Championships. The Chiefs never looked like losing in a 17-10 win over the Ravens. The 49ers on the other hand were in grave danger trailing 7-24 at the half but mounted a comeback to win 34-31.
We recommended the Chiefs +3.5 which won easily and the 49ers -7 which never looked like it had a chance but amazingly they were covering up 10 going into the last two minutes before a garbage time touchdown by the Lions made it a loser.
So, 1-1 on the week which makes us 45-36 and 55% on the season.
Now onto the grand finale – Superbowl 58
San Francisco 49ers (12-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
Game being played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas
Sun 11:30pm GMT
Handicap: 49ers -2
Total: 47.5
If you want in depth breakdowns of the different matchups or stats for this game there are plenty of articles readily available on the internet. Same goes for analysis of the plethora of props you can bet on for this game, but that’s not really my thing. I am first and foremost a bookmaker, and a bettor second, so my Superbowl preview will look at the line movement and where the money is:
The game opened 49ers -2.5 and early Chiefs money dropped it to -1 before 49ers money brought it back to where it currently sits at -2.
The total opened 47.5 and was briefly at 48 earlier this week before coming back down to 47.5
What does this tell us?
Well, it’s a classic pros vs joes game, or sharps vs swifties if you prefer. Despite the general public being all over Kansas and books taking a heavy volume of bets on that side, sharp money has kept the 49ers favored by 2 points.
Same sort of thing on the total, the general public loves the over but when books tried to go 48 it was brought back down quickly by sharp money on the under.
So, to sum up the sharp sides are the 49ers and under, and while they may not win in a one game sample size, they will get the money in the long run. The bettor in me can’t take the sharp side on the total so no bet for me there but I will go with the sharps on the side.
Recommendation: 49ers -2
Note
Lines correct at time of writing but are subject to change.
All recommendations are to win 1 unit. So, if the odds are 10/11 I recommend you risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I also recommend proper bankroll management and 1 unit should not be more than 2% of your overall bankroll.
NFL Betting Tips and Picks for the NFL Conference Championships
We went 3-1 last week in the Divisional round and were only a failed 2-point conversion by the Buccs away from going a perfect 4-0. Nevertheless, we improve to 44-36 (55%) on the season, good for +4.4 units. The Ravens covered fairly easily against the Texans, The Packers almost pulled off the upset but the cover was never in doubt, and the Chiefs were the last team standing in a see-saw game against the Bills.
Just the two big Conference Championships this week with the #1 seeds taking on the #3 seeds in both games:
Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) at Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
Sun 8pm GMT
Handicap: Ravens -3.5
Total: 44.5
This is going to be a good one, and the Superbowl winner will be the winner of this game in my opinion. Baltimore may be the best team overall but I just can’t not take the best QB in the league in Patrick Mahomes and a superior coach in Andy Reid against John Harbaugh getting more than the key number of 3 in this spot. Yes Lamar Jackson is going to be the MVP and he has a lot of weapons at his disposal but in this spot the +3.5 is the play for me.
Recommendation: Chiefs +3.5
Detroit Lions (12-5) at San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
Sun 11:30pm GMT
Handicap: 49ers -7
Total: 51.5
The Lions defense is not good. I have a problem seeing how they are going to stop the 49ers here. They gave up 400+ yards to the Buccs last week and the Rams the week before, and that was at home. Now they go on the road outside of the comfort of playing in a dome and it can only get worse for me. The 49ers had a scare last week that should have woken them up and I’m baking them to win this one easily and advance to the big game.
Recommendation: 49ers -7
Note
Lines correct at time of writing but are subject to change.
All recommendations are to win 1 unit. So, if the odds are 10/11 I recommend you risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I also recommend proper bankroll management and 1 unit should not be more than 2% of your overall bankroll.
NFL Betting Tips and Picks for the NFL Divisional Playoffs
We went 3-2 last week with the Steelers/Bills Under cancelled as the game was moved to the following day, which was a shame as the total was down to 33 and it would have been true blizzard conditions had they gone ahead. So, we’re now 41-35 on the season.
This time of the year is always bittersweet for me. We have huge playoff games with it all to play for, but at the same time the season is nearly over. We have exactly 7 games left and 4 of them take place this weekend in the divisional round:
Houston Texans (10-7) at Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
Sat 9:30pm GMT
Handicap: Ravens -9.5
Total: 43.5
With only one team getting a bye now in each conference I think it gives Baltimore a big advantage. C.J. Stroud has impressed everyone in his rookie season but outdoors in the elements against this Ravens defense I think will be too much even for him. Ravens and MVP candidate Lamar Jackson win pulling away.
Recommendation: Ravens -9.5
Green Bay Packers (9-8) at San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
Sun 01:15am GMT
Handicap: 49ers -9.5
Total: 50.5
As above, big advantage for the 49ers coming off the bye but the Packers have been getting better with each passing week and this is a difficult one for me to call. I would have loved to take a +10.5 with the Packers but I don’t think we’re going to see it. I’m going to take a chance that the Packers keep pace in what could be a high scoring game.
Recommendation: Packers +9.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) at Detroit Lions (12-5)
Sun 8pm GMT
Handicap: Lions -6.5
Total: 48.5
The Lions and Dan Campbell are a good story and they may well win this one but I think it will be close. Buccs coach Todd Bowles blitzes more than any coach in the league and Jared Goff doesn’t do well under pressure. The Buccs showed last week against the Eagles they have the ability to compete in the playoffs and I’ll take the points here in what I think will be a close game.
Recommendation: Buccaneers +6.5
Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) at Buffalo Bills (11-6)
Sun 11:30pm GMT
Handicap: Bills +2.5
Total: 45.5
The Chiefs are coming good at the right time. In atrocious conditions last week against the Dolphins they put up 400 yards of offense with sub zero temperatures and high winds. Their defense has never been in question and now with their offense seemingly kicking into high gear I’m very happy to take them as a dog on the road with the points against a Bills team who have question marks about the availability of several starters on defense as I write this.
Recommendation: Chiefs +2.5
Note
Lines correct at time of writing but are subject to change.
All recommendations are to win 1 unit. So, if the odds are 10/11 I recommend you risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I also recommend proper bankroll management and 1 unit should not be more than 2% of your overall bankroll.
NFL Betting Tips and Picks for the NFL Week 18 – NFL Playoff predictions and tips
The last week of the regular season can be a bit of a minefield to know who’s playing for what and which teams may rest staters so I’ll mark your card by giving a brief overview of what’s on the line for each game this week.
Betting Tips
My golden rule in these situations is not to bet on teams with nothing to play for. With that in mind my NFL tips for this week are:
- Green Bay Packers -2.5
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5
- Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
- Philadelphia Eagles -4.5
- Detroit Lions -3.5
Read below to get more information on each individual tip and see what each NFL team has on the line this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) at Baltimore Ravens (13-3)
Sat 8:30pm GMT
Handicap: Steelers -1.5
Total: 35.5
PLAYOFF SCENARIOS: PITTSBURGH – STEELERS WILL MAKE WILD CARD WITH WIN & DOLPHINS WIN OR WIN & TITANS WIN. CAN ALSO MAKE WILD CARD WITH LOSS & TITANS WIN & BRONCOS WIN. BALTIMORE – HAS CLINCHED AFC #1 SEED AND MAY REST PLAYERS (LAMAR JACKSON WILL NOT PLAY)
Houston Texans (9-7) at Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
Sun 01:15am GMT
Handicap: Texans -1.5
Total: 38.5
PLAYOFF SCENARIOS: HOUSTON – TEXANS ALIVE FOR DIVISION TITLE, NEED WIN & JAGUARS LOSS. INDIANAPOLIS – COLTS ALIVE FOR DIVISION TITLE, NEED WIN & JAGUARS LOSS. BOTH TEAMS ALIVE FOR AFC #7 SEED ALONG WITH PITTSBURGH.
Dallas Cowboys (11-5) at Washington Commanders (4-12)
Sun 8:25pm GMT
Handicap: Cowboys -13.5
Total: 45.5
PLAYOFF SCENARIOS: DALLAS – COWBOYS HAVE CLICHED A PLAYOFF BERTH. CAN WIN NFC EAST WITH WIN. WASHINGTON – ELIMINATED
Los Angeles Rams (9-7) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
Sun 8:25pm GMT
Handicap: 49ers -3.5
Total: 41.5
PLAYOFF SCENARIOS: LOS ANGELES – RAMS HAVE CLINCHED A PLAYOFF BERTH. MAY REST PLAYERS. (MATTHEW STAFFORD WILL NOT PLAY) SAN FRANCISCO – 49ERS HAVE CLINCHED THE NFC WEST AND ARE PLAYING FOR #1 SEED & BYE. (BROCK PURDY AND CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY WILL NOT PLAY)
Buffalo Bills (10-6) at Miami Dolphins (11-5)
Mon 01:20am GMT
Handicap: Bills -2.5
Total: 49.5
PLAYOFF SCENARIOS: WINNER CLINCHES AFC EAST BUFFALO – CAN MAKE PLAYOFFS WITH LOSS & STEELERS OR JAGUARS LOSS. MIAMI – HAS CLINCHED A PLAYOFF BERTH.
Atlanta Falcons (7-9) at New Orleans Saints (8-8)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Saints -3.5
Total: 42.5
PLAYOFF SCENARIOS: ATLANTA – FALCONS NEED WIN & PACKERS LOSS & SEAHAWKS LOSS & SAINTS LOSS & VIKINGS LOSS TO CLINCH #7 SEED. NEW ORLEANS – SAINTS CAN WIN NFC SOUTH WITH WIN & BUCCANEERS LOSS. SAINTS CAN ALSO EARN WILD CARD WITH WIN & PACKERS LOSS & SEAHAWKS LOSS.
Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) at New York Giants (5-11)
Sun 9:25pm GMT
Handicap: Eagles -4.5
Total: 42.5
PLAYOFF SCENARIOS: PHILADELPHIA – EAGLES HAVE CLICHED A PLAYOFF BERTH. CAN WIN NFC EAST WITH WIN & COWBOYS LOSS. NEW YORK – ELIMINATED
Cleveland Browns (11-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Bengals -6.5
Total: 37.5
PLAYOFF SCENARIOS: CLEVELAND – BROWNS HAVE CLICHED A WILD CARD PLAYOFF BERTH (#5 SEED). MAY REST PLAYERS. (JOE FLACCO WILL NOT PLAY) CINCINNATI – ELIMINATED
Chicago Bears (7-9) at Green Bay Packers (8-8)
Sun 6:25pm GMT
Handicap: Packers -2.5
Total: 43.5
PLAYOFF SCENARIOS: CHICAGO – ELIMINATED. GREEN BAY – PACKERS CAN CLINCH #7 SEED WITH WIN
Seattle Seahawks (8-8) at Arizona Cardinals (4-12)
Sun: 6:25pm GMT
Handicap: Seahawks -2.5
Total: 47.5
PLAYOFF SCENARIOS: SEATTLE – SEAHAWKS NEED WIN & PACKERS LOSS TO EARN #7 SEED. ARIZONA – ELIMINATED
New York Jets (6-10) at New England Patriots (4-12)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Patriots -1.5
Total: 30.5
PLAYOFF SCENARIOS: NEW YORK – ELIMINATED. NEW ENGLAND – ELIMINATED
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) at Tennessee Titans (5-11)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Jaguars -5.5
Total: 40.5
PLAYOFF SCENARIOS: JACKSONVILLE – JAGUARS CAN WIN DIVISION WITH WIN. TENNESSEE – ELIMINATED
Denver Broncos (8-8) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-9)
Sun 6:25pm GMT
Handicap: Raiders -2.5
Total: 38.5
PLAYOFF SCENARIOS: DENVER – ELIMINATED. LAS VEGAS – ELIMINATED
Minnesota Vikings (7-9) at Detroit Lions (11-5)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Lions -3.5
Total: 35.5
PLAYOFF SCENARIOS: MINNESOTA – VIKINGS NEED WIN & PACKERS LOSS & SEAHAWKS LOSS & SAINTS LOSS TO EARN #7 SEED. DETROIT – HAS CLINCHED THE NFC NORTH. PLAYING FOR SEEDING.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) at Carolina Panthers (2-14)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Buccaneers -4.5
Total: 47.5
PLAYOFF SCENARIOS: TAMPA BAY – BUCCANEERS CAN CLINCH DIVISION WITH WIN. CAROLINA – ELIMINATED
Kansas City Chiefs (8-8) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-11)
Sun 9:25pm GMT
Handicap: Chargers -3.5
Total: 35.5
PLAYOFF SCENARIOS: KANSAS CITY – CHIEFS HAVE CLINCHED AFC WEST. PLAYING FOR SEEDING. (PATRICK MAHOMES WILL NOT PLAY) LOS ANGELES – ELIMINATED
Betting Tips
My golden rule in these situations is not to bet on teams with nothing to play for. With that in mind my NFL tips for this week are:
- Green Bay Packers -2.5
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5
- Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
- Philadelphia Eagles -4.5
- Detroit Lions -3.5
Note
Lines correct at time of writing but are subject to change.
All recommendations are to win 1 unit. So, if the odds are 10/11 I recommend you risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I also recommend proper bankroll management and 1 unit should not be more than 2% of your overall bankroll.
*Odds correct at time of publishing. Available to UK residents (excluding Northern Ireland) aged 18+ only. T&Cs apply. www.begambleaware.org
Previous Week’s NFL Tips and Predictions
NFL Betting Tips and Picks for the NFL Week 17
We split 2-2 last week winning with the Cleveland/Houston total and Seattle, and losing with Indianapolis and San Francisco who got blown out at home in the MVP Bowl with Lamar Jackson now a firm favourite to win that award.
I did recommend that if any 13’s or better appeared on the Chargers to play it and we did see some 13’s re-appear on gameday and I know I played it and hopefully some of you did too but I won’t count that as part of our record which now stands at 33-29 on the season.
Elsewhere the Dolphins narrowly beat the Cowboys, the Patriots upset the Broncos and the Raiders played the role of the Grinch upsetting the Chiefs on Christmas day.
Just two weeks left of the regular season and still a lot to play for. Here’s what I like this week:
Las Vegas Raiders (6-8) at Indianapolis Colts (8-7)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Colts -3.5
Total: 43.5
In beating the Chiefs, Aidan O’Connell only completed 9 of 21 pass attempts for 62 yards, and all of those came in the 1st quarter. That won’t get the job done against the Colts, who I know had an ugly loss last week, but I’m taking them to bounce back here against the Raiders and their anorexic offense.
Recommendation: Colts -3.5
Atlanta Falcons (7-8) at Chicago Bears (6-9)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Bears -2.5
Total: 38.5
Some weather concerns here with 15-20 mph winds forecast and temperature likely to be below 0. Add in the two top skill position players for the Bears in Moore and Kmet dealing with injuries and an improving Falcons D and we have all the ingredients for a good under bet.
Recommendation: Under 38.5
Arizona Cardinals (3-12) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-4)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Eagles -10.5
Total: 47.5
Bad spot for Arizona here playing back-to-back cross country road games and in the early time slot. They lost by 11 last week at Chicago and I have to think the Eagles can do better here. On top of that Kyler Murray is listed with an illness on the injury report. He will likely play but could be dealing with flu or similar.
Recommendation: Eagles -10.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7) at Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Sun 9:05pm GMT
Handicap: Seahawks -3.5
Total: 41.5
Two teams with matching records batting to stay alive in the race for the playoffs. Two cagey coaches in Mike Tomlin and Pete Carroll. Can see this being a hard-fought defensive battle with conservative play calling.
Recommendation: Under 41.5
Note
Lines correct at time of writing but are subject to change.
All recommendations are to win 1 unit. So, if the odds are 10/11 I recommend you risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I also recommend proper bankroll management and 1 unit should not be more than 2% of your overall bankroll.
NFL Betting Tips and Picks for the NFL Week 16
A solid 4-2 last week on our recommendations to take our record to 31-27 on the season. We won with the Lions, Saints, Rams and the Under in Miami. Elsewhere the Raiders ran up 60+ a week after scoring exactly 0! Both the Cowboys and Eagles lost to leave the 49ers in control in the NFC and the Chiefs halted their losing streak.
The holiday season is upon us but that doesn’t mean the action stops, quite the opposite in fact with 2 games on Saturday, a normal slate on Christmas Eve and 3 games on Christmas Day. Let’s see if we can’t pick out some stocking fillers to make it a very merry Christmas!
No weather concerns this week as I write, although New England at Denver is likely to be a snow game, but that doesn’t really affect the total.
No recommendations for the Saturday games but there was sharp money on the Chargers at the opener of +14 and also at +13.5 and +13. It currently sits at 12.5 where I have no opinion but if public money pushes it back up to 13 or above it could be worth a play.
Indianapolis Colts (8-6) at Atlanta Falcons (6-8)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Falcons -1.5
Total: 44.5
Not sure how the Falcons can be favourites here. They lost at Carolina and switch back to Taylor Heinicke at QB. Colts coming off an impressive win against the Steelers and get Jonathan Taylor back to boost the running game. Give me Blue Horseshoe over the Dirty Birds.
Recommendation: Colts +1.5
Cleveland Browns (9-5) at Houston Texans (8-6)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Browns -2.5
Total: 39.5
I like the over here. The Browns are passing a lot more with Joe Flacco at quarterback which bodes well for points and the Texans have been playing high scoring games at home all season. As I write the status of C.J. Stroud is still uncertain but even if Case Keenum starts I still think there is a lot of potential for points here with both defenses banged up. If Stroud does go the total will go back up to 42.5 or 43 so potential upside there as well.
Recommendation: Over 39.5
Seattle Seahawks (7-7) at Tennessee Titans (5-9)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Seattle -2.5
Total: 41.5
I have no idea who will start at QB for Tennessee, take your pick from Malik Willis, Will Levis or Ryan Tannehill, but whoever it is I like Seattle coming off a big win on Monday night against the Eagles against a banged up Titans and their quarterback carousel.
Recommendation: Seahawks -2.5
Baltimore Ravens (11-3) at San Francisco 49ers (11-3)
Tue 1:15am GMT
Handicap: 49ers -5.5
Total: 47.5
The Ravens were slightly lucky to beat the Jaguars last week I thought with Trevor Lawrence fumbling twice and I think they could struggle here against the clear best team in the league in the 49ers whose defense should be able to contain the outstanding Lamar Jackson and his scrambles.
Recommendation: 49ers -4.5
Note
Lines correct at time of writing but are subject to change.
All recommendations are to win 1 unit. So, if the odds are 10/11 I recommend you risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I also recommend proper bankroll management and 1 unit should not be more than 2% of your overall bankroll.
NFL Betting Tips and Picks for the NFL Week 15
We went 1-1 on our recommendations last week with the sharp money being vindicated on the Bears as they won outright, while Houston, after a scoreless first half allowed the Jets to rack up 30 after the break.
Elsewhere the Bills got a much-needed win at the Chiefs as Patrick Mahomes threw his toys out of the pram after an offside call went against them and the Cowboys looked like the real deal in a 33-13 win against the Eagles.
The byes are now done so we have a full slate to choose from for the remaining 4 weeks of the regular season which includes a triple-header this Saturday.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) at Indianapolis Colts (7-6)
Sat 9:30pm GMT
Handicap: Steelers +1.5
Total: 42.5
Sharp money for the Steelers here at +2.5 and I think there is still value at +1.5 The Colts D is very bad and teams have been able to move the ball on them fairly easily which bodes well for the Steelers coming in with a little extra rest and having had more time to adjust the offense for Trubisky.
Recommendation: Steelers +1.5
Denver Broncos (7-6) at Detroit Lions (9-4)
Sun 1:15am GMT
Handicap: Lions -3.5
Total: 47.5
Good bounce back spot here for the Lions who are a completely different animal at home indoors. If Goff can avoid the turnovers I think the Lions cover here and will be able to run the ball on the Broncos D. The Broncos I think have had a lot of luck lately to get to their current 7-6 record and could be exploited here.
Recommendation: Lions -3.5
New York Giants (5-8) at New Orleans Saints (6-7)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Saints -5.5
Total: 39.5
Devito is a good story for the Giants, but a good quarterback? For me no. They got lucky to win on Monday night as Love and the Packers had an off night and they should come crashing back down to earth here.
Recommendation: Saints -5.5
New York Jets(5-8) at Miami Dolphins (9-4)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Dolphins -8.5
Total: 37.5
20 mph winds with gusts up to 30 mph forecast here, and add a very strong Jets D and a not-so-great Jets O and its easy to see how this total could stay under. The number is already down from 40.5 but think it could go even lower.
Recommendation: Under 37.5
Washington Commanders (4-9) at Los Angeles Rams (6-7)
Sun 9:05pm GMT
Handicap: Rams -6.5
Total: 50.5
Some money here for the Over with two bad defenses but I’m not sure the Commanders can do their part so I’d rather take the Rams laying the points here at home and expect them to have a big day against the Commanders porous secondary.
Recommendation: Rams -6.5
Dallas Cowboys (10-3) at Buffalo Bills (7-6)
Sun 9:05pm GMT
Handicap: Bills -2.5
Total: 50.5
Strange line here for me and a little disrespectful to the Cowboys to have them as dogs. The Bills are banged up and I don’t see a reason why they should be favourites here against the number 2 ranked team in the league.
Recommendation: Cowboys +2.5
Note
Lines correct at time of writing but are subject to change.
All recommendations are to win 1 unit. So, if the odds are 10/11 I recommend you risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I also recommend proper bankroll management and 1 unit should not be more than 2% of your overall bankroll.
NFL Betting Tips and Picks for the NFL Week 14
We went 2-2 on our NFL betting tips last week making our season record 26-24, although we can consider ourselves a little unlucky as the 2 games we lost were by a grand total of 2 points combined!
The 49ers put on a dominant display in Philadelphia to firmly establish themselves as favourites for the Superbowl. The Cowboys just about scraped by the Seahawks, the Dolphins, bullies that they are beat up on an easy team again and Jordan Love and the young Packers team are looking better every week as they upset the Chiefs.
Onto this week and as autumn becomes winter, we do have to take into account the weather reports. Heavy wind is expected for several games this weekend and totals have already been bet down. In Cleveland the total is down from 33.5 to 30.5, in Baltimore from 43.5 to 40.5 and in New York from 37 to 33.5.
It’s also a very bad season injury wise for quarterbacks with Trevor Lawrence the latest to go down on Monday night and his status is officially questionable for this week, but the line suggests he won’t be playing. Also up in the air is the QB situation in New Orleans with Derek Carr in concussion protocol.
Let’s try and avoid getting placed on IR or getting blown over and see if we can pick out some winners.
Houston Texans (7-5) at New York Jets (4-8)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Texans -3.5
Total: 33.5
Zach Wilson returns at QB for the mess that is the New York Jets. He’ll face standout rookie C.J. Stroud and the improving Texans. This game opened with Houston a 6-point favourite and has come down as the market deemed Zach Wilson an upgrade for the Jets and also because its likely to be impacted by weather. The Texans lost Tank Dell to IR last week but I’m still betting on Stroud’s talent and ability to spread the ball around and their running game to be able to cover the spread here on the road.
Recommendation: Texans -3.5
Detroit Lions (9-3) at Chicago Bears (4-8)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Lions -3.5
Total: 43.5
Sharp money has pushed this line down from 5.5 to where it currently sits at 3.5 and I still think there’s value to be had here with the Bears getting more than the key number of 3. The Lions are not the same team on the road as they are at home. I think Justin Fields and the Bears running game have the advantage here in a cold-weather game likely to be impacted by wind.
Recommendation: Bears +3.5
And that’s all I have this week. Just two bets for me at this stage with a lot of weather and injury concerns throughout the card.
The are two standout games in the Bills at Chiefs and Eagles at Cowboys but the lines look right to me and I’ll probably look for opportunities to get involved live.
There’s also a double header on Monday night, both games at the same time, but again the lines look right and it might be better to wait for something in-play.
Note
Lines correct at time of writing but are subject to change.
All recommendations are to win 1 unit. So, if the odds are 10/11 I recommend you risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I also recommend proper bankroll management and 1 unit should not be more than 2% of your overall bankroll.
NFL Betting Tips and Picks for the NFL Week 13
Finally, we got a perfect 4-0 last week on our recommendations to improve to 24-22 on the season, just peeking out above .500
Although the week was book-ended by good results for the layers with the Packers winning the first game on Thanksgiving and the Bears (one of our recommendations) winning on MNF, in between it was all chalk with punters in clover as favourites went 12-4 against the spread in the worst week of the season by far for the bookies.
So now that everyone has plenty of newly won ammunition, let’s see what we can fire at this week.
Just 13 games to choose from with 6 teams having had too much turkey and sitting it out: Baltimore, Buffalo, Chicago, Las Vegas, Minnesota and New York Giants.
Los Angeles Chargers (4-7) at New England Patriots (2-9)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Chargers -5.5
Total: 40.5
Hold on a minute. Chargers laying 5.5 on the road? I know the Patriots are a bit of a mess at the moment and they will likely split time at QB this week, but who are the Chargers to lay this number? Take away Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen (which Bellichick will likely do) and they can’t move the ball. Pats cover this disrespectful number at home for me.
Recommendation: Patriots +5.5
Atlanta Falcons (5-6) at New York Jets (4-7)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Falcons -2.5
Total: 33.5
The Falcons come off a big division win last week over the Saints and get a much easier task here on the road at the Jets who will roll with Tim Boyle again at QB this week, who is, for my money, worse than Zach Wilson. So, I don’t think the Falcons will have much trouble stopping the Jets and think Desmond Ridder and co. can do enough to cover this spread.
Recommendation: Falcons -2.5
Denver Broncos (6-5) at Houston Texans (6-5)
Sun 6pm BST
Handicap: Broncos +3.5
Total: 47.5
Where’s my horse? Third week in a row we’re riding with the Broncos. Their defense has generated 16 turnovers during their current 5 game win streak and I expect them to continue in that vain this week against a trigger happy C.J. Stroud and the Texans.
Recommendation: Broncos +3.5
San Francisco 49ers (8-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)
Sun 6:25pm GMT
Handicap: 49ers -2.5
Total: 47.5
Game of the week in the late window Sunday. The Eagles have to be worn out after coming from behind against the Chiefs two weeks ago and a lucky overtime win last week against the Bills. They trailed in both games for almost their entirety. I believe their luck runs out this week against, in my opinion, the best team in the league. The 49ers weren’t tested against Seattle on Thanksgiving and the 3 extra days rest will give them an edge here as they look to avenge their NFC Championship loss from a year ago.
Recommendation: 49ers -2.5
Note
Lines correct at time of writing but are subject to change.
All recommendations are to win 1 unit. So, if the odds are 10/11 I recommend you risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I also recommend proper bankroll management and 1 unit should not be more than 2% of your overall bankroll.
NFL Betting Tips and Picks for the NFL Week 12
Happy Thanksgiving everybody!
We have 3 games on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and 1 on Black Friday this week, along with the usual Sunday and Monday night games. I thought about publishing early for the Thursday games but didn’t really have any strong opinions on them one way or another. The only game I may play would be Washington as I think 13.5 points is too many to be receiving and if a 14 does happen to hit the screen, I’ll surely be gobbling it up.
Friday’s game also looks to be priced right with the Dolphins hovering around 9 or 10 point favorites on the road at the Jets.
So, let’s move on and look at a few of Sunday’s games where I do have some recommendations.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-5)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Steelers -1.5
Total: 35.5
Finally, the Steelers have had enough of Matt Canada calling the plays and have replaced him with Mike Sullivan this week who has already said he wants to get the ball to their playmakers George Pickens and Jaylen Warren which sounds promising.
The Bengals in contrast lost Joe Burrow for the season last week and will be starting rookie Jake Browning at QB. Good luck with that against the Steelers D! Where’s my terrible towel?
Recommendation: Steelers -1.5
Cleveland Browns (7-3) at Denver Broncos (5-5)
Sun 9:05pm BST
Handicap: Broncos -1.5
Total: 35.5
We had the Broncos last week and although they won, they didn’t cover the spread. We’ll stick with them this week as I’m really no fan of Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB for the Browns. His stat line last week read 24 of 43 for 165 yards, 0 TD’s and 1 INT. Cleveland’s defense has been winning these games and I think its too much to ask of them here on the road at Mile High.
Recommendation: Broncos -1.5
Buffalo Bills (6-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)
Sun 6:25pm GMT
Handicap: Eagles -2.5
Total: 38.5
The Eagles are coming off a big win in Kansas City on Monday night. Although they were trailing most of the game, they were able to shut KC down in the 2nd half and come from behind to win. They face an easier task here at home against a Bills team that have most of their defense on the injury list and Josh Allen leading the league in interceptions again. AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith should both have big games for the Eagles.
Recommendation: Eagles -2.5
Chicago Bears (3-8) at Minnesota Vikings (6-5)
Tue 1:15am GMT
Handicap: Vikings -3.5
Total: 42.5
We were against Josh Dobbs and the Vikings last week and we’ll stick with more of the same here as I don’t agree with them being 3.5 point favorites.
The Bears with Justin Fields back played the Lions close in Detroit last week and but for running out of gas a bit at the end would have come away with a win. I’ll take the points here on Monday night.
Recommendation: Bears +3.5
Note
Lines correct at time of writing but are subject to change.
All recommendations are to win 1 unit. So, if the odds are 10/11 I recommend you risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I also recommend proper bankroll management and 1 unit should not be more than 2% of your overall bankroll.
NFL Betting Tips and Picks for the NFL Week 11
Seems we can’t get off the 50% mark with our recommendations one way or another. We split again 3-3 last week to make us 19-19 on the season.
The International games in Europe are done now with the Colts beating the Patriots in Frankfurt last week, so no more early starts. Elsewhere around the league C.J. Stroud and the Texans upset the Bengals, the Browns came from behind to beat Baltimore, the 49ers got back on track, the Lions won a shootout at SoFi and the Broncos upset the Bills on Monday Night.
Atlanta, Indianapolis, New England and New Orleans take their turn for the bye this time around in a week that is book-ended by two standout games. On Thursday night a big division matchup as Baltimore host Cincinnati and on Monday night a repeat of last seasons Superbowl between Kansas and Philadelphia, but I’m looking elsewhere for this weeks recommended bets.
Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) at Miami Dolphins (6-3)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Dolphins -13.5
Total: 46.5.5
Oh boy I really fear for the Raiders here. They just about squeezed out a win in an ugly game against the Jets last week but I don’t give them any hope here against the boys from South Beach coming off their bye. This could get ugly fast. Fins in a blowout.
Recommendation: Dolphins -13.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at San Francisco 49ers (6-3)
Sun 9:05pm BST
Handicap: 49ers -11.5
Total: 41.5
Both teams halted losing skids last week with easy wins and while I expect San Francisco to win here the better play in my opinion is on the Over. The 49ers looked back to their best coming off the bye in a convincing win at Jacksonville last week and we can expect them to put up 30 points here at home. So will the Buccs also do their part. I think they will. I think they’ll be playing from behind and targeting their wide receivers with deep balls often which is an area where the 49ers have struggled a little bit this season.
Recommendation: Over 41.5
Seattle Seahawks (6-3) at Los Angeles Rams (3-6)
Sun 6:25pm GMT
Handicap: Seahawks -1.5
Total: 46.5
I know the Rams have been on a downward trend but this line feels a little disrespectful to me. Coming off the bye they are rested, healthy, and have Matthew Stafford back. The Seahawks were pushed to the wire at home against Washington last week and have Tyler Lockett listed as questionable.
Recommendation: Rams +1.5
Minnesota Vikings (6-4) at Denver Broncos (4-5)
Mon 1:20am GMT
Handicap: Broncos -2.5
Total: 42.5
I’m not a part of the Josh Dobbs fan club and am not likely to be anytime in the near future. He may be 2-0 as the Vikings starter but he could just as easily be 0-2. Somehow the Vikings have managed to get the wins with Dobbs scrambling for his life and improvising converting numerous 3rd and 4th downs. Their luck runs out this week against an improving Broncos team coming off a sold win on Monday night.
Recommendation: Broncos -2.5
Note
Lines correct at time of writing but are subject to change.
All recommendations are to win 1 unit. So, if the odds are 10/11 I recommend you risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I also recommend proper bankroll management and 1 unit should not be more than 2% of your overall bankroll.
NFL Betting Tips and Picks for the NFL Week 10
We’re at exactly the halfway mark of the regular season. Nine weeks gone and nine more to go. Our recommendations are also very half and half, unfortunately. We went 2-2 last week making our record on the season 16-16, for 50% and -1.6 units. Let’s try and improve that over the second half of the season.
To quickly recap last week, the Chiefs hung on to win a game of two halves in Germany, the Ravens and Browns both won easily, the Texans won a thriller and there were also wins for the Packers, Commanders, Colts, Raiders, Eagles, Bengals and Chargers.
This week on bye we have Kansas City, Miami, Philadelphia and the Los Angeles Rams.
Carolina Panthers (1-7) at Chicago Bears (2-7)
Fri 1:15am GMT
Handicap: Bears -2.5
Total: 38.5
On the face of it not a very appealing matchup on Thursday Night Football but we’re more interested in making money than the quality of the game.
Carolina loses key linebacker Brian Burns and have a slew of other injuries in the secondary. On the other side of the ball, they just haven’t been able to sustain any offense and are less likely to do so here against a good Bears D who look as healthy as they have been all season.
I’ve seen enough out of Tyson Bagent to believe the Bears get the cover here.
Recommendation: Bears -2.5
Cleveland Browns (5-3) at Baltimore Ravens (7-2)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Ravens -5.5
Total: 37.5
The Browns pitched a shutout against the Cardinals last week but that really isn’t saying much. More impressive was the Raven’s 37-3 against the Seahawks and it’s easy to see why Lamar Jackson is one on the front runners for MVP.
The Browns are down both starting tackles and I’m backing Lamar and the Ravens to keep up their dominance at home.
Recommendation: Ravens -5.5
San Francisco 49ers (5-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: 49ers -2.5
Total: 44.5
Both teams coming off the bye, but contrasting fortunes, the 49ers off 3 straight losses and the Jags off 5 straight wins, but who have they really beaten? The Bills in London who are struggling and no-one else of note would be the answer. The 49ers get Trent Williams back and possibly Deebo Samuel. This number is too cheap for me. 49ers being under-rated and the Jags over-rated.
Recommendation: 49ers -2.5
New Orleans Saints (5-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-4)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Saints -2.5
Total: 41.5
The Vikings were extremely lucky to get the win last week against Atlanta and I’m not sold on Josh Dobbs. He won’t have the same luck against the Saints defensive front. I like this matchup for the Saints.
Recommendation: Saints -2.5
Green Bay Packers (3-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Steelers -3.5
Total: 39.5
The total here was bet up from the opener of 36.5 to where it currently sits at 39.5 and I’m struggling to see why. Both teams have been struggling on offense and both teams have above average defenses. I’m going against the early week money and taking the under here.
Recommendation: Under 39.5
Detroit Lions (6-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-4)
Sun 9:05pm GMT
Handicap: Lions -2.5
Total: 48.5
The 21 point margin of victory for the Chargers on Monday night against the Jets is very deceiving as they had less than 200 yard of offense. With wide receivers Joshua Palmer and Mike Williams on injured reserve for the season that only leaves Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler as their offensive threats. I believe they can be contained by the Lions D coming off the bye and am taking Jared Goff and the Lions to win comfortably here.
Recommendation: Lions -2.5
Note
Lines correct at time of writing but are subject to change.
All recommendations are to win 1 unit. So, if the odds are 10/11 I recommend you risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I also recommend proper bankroll management and 1 unit should not be more than 2% of your overall bankroll.
NFL Betting Tips and Picks for the NFL Week 9
We went 3-1 with our recommendations last week, winning comfortably with the Cowboys and Vikings, losing badly with the Falcons and barely scraping a win with the Seahawks but it still counts as a W.
Elsewhere the Chiefs were upset as 7-point road favourites in Denver, the Bengals won the game of the week in impressive fashion in San Francisco and the prime-time favourites won easily on SNF and MNF in the shape of the Chargers and Lions respectively. So, with the exception of Kansas City, a much better week overall for the betting public.
The byes return this week after everyone played last week. Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville and San Francisco get to rest up this week. Some mouth-watering matchups to look forward to this week and we include two of them in our recommendations.
Miami Dolphins (6-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-2)
Note: Game being played in Frankfurt, Germany
Sun 2:30pm GMT
Handicap: Chiefs -1.5
Total: 50.5
The game of the week is arguably the first game up on Sunday from Germany. Both the Dolphins and the Chiefs come in at 6-2, but in vastly different ways. The Dolphins took care of business comfortably at home against the Patriots while the Chiefs put in easily their worst performance of the season in the loss at Denver.
Everyone knows about the Dolphin’s high-octane offense but it looks like they’re getting healthier on defense with both Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard back which makes them a play here for me. I also like the fact that they flew over to Germany on Sunday night whereas the Chiefs will only travel on Thursday. We saw the Ravens do the same a few weeks ago for a London game and look much better prepared than their opponents.
Recommendation: Dolphins +1.5
Washington Commanders (3-5) at New England Patriots (2-6)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Patriots -3.5
Total: 40.5
Washington traded away their top two pass rushers in Sweat and Young at the trade deadline this week so immediately get a downgrade which will be good news for Mac Jones and the Patriots who have played some of the best defenses already in their schedule.
I like this spot for the Patriots at home.
Recommendation: Patriots -3.5
Dallas Cowboys (5-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-1)
Sun 9:25pm GMT
Handicap: Eagles -2.5
Total: 46.5
A big NFC East showdown here in the late window on Sunday. The Eagles are ranked by many as the best team in the NFL and I can’t disagree. Dallas still has some injuries on the offensive line which the Eagles defensive front can exploit. AJ Brown should also feast against a weak secondary and when you add in the coaching mismatch – give me Nick Sirianni over Mike McCarthy any day of the week – the Eagles will be flying high here for me.
Recommendation: Eagles -2.5
Los Angeles Chargers (3-4) at New York Jets (4-3)
Tue 1:15am GMT
Handicap: Chargers -3.5
Total: 40.5
The Jets have serious issues on the offensive line. 4 starters are out and they are down to their 4th string center. Seems like a similar opponent for the Chargers as the Bears who they had on Sunday night last week and who they dispatched easily with Austin Ekeler coming back and just eating up scrimmage yards. Going up against a better defense this week but I still like the Chargers to cover.
Recommendation: Chargers -3.5
Note
Lines correct at time of writing but are subject to change.
All recommendations are to win 1 unit. So, if the odds are 10/11 I recommend you risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I also recommend proper bankroll management and 1 unit should not be more than 2% of your overall bankroll.
NFL Betting Tips and Picks for the NFL Week 8
Last week was another good week for the bookies as the Patriots sprung the big upset and defeated the Bills at home as 7.5-point dogs. Unusually the public loved two dogs last week in the Lions and the Dolphins, but both were soundly beaten, and to round the week off the 49ers went down on Monday night against the Vikings. So, satchels full for the bookies and punters licking their wounds.
With no teams on the bye this week (don’t ask me why, I have no idea) we have a full 16-game card to choose from. Let’s see if we can pick some winners.
Are you ready for some football?
Los Angeles Rams (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (4-2)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Cowboys -6.5
Total: 45.5
Matthew Stafford has been regressing all season and looked horrible last week under pressure. Add the Rams weak secondary who are giving up large chunk plays and you have two areas which I believe the Cowboys can exploit at home coming off their bye.
Recommendation: Cowboys -6.5
Atlanta Falcons (4-3) at Tennessee Titans (2-4)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Falcons -2.5
Total: 35.5
Ryan Tannehill is doubtful for the Titans and rookie Will Levis is expected to get the start at QB, although Malik Willis could also see some playing time. It just seems like a messy situation for me with neither option good against a strong Falcons D. The Falcons won a close one in Tampa last week although they really should have won more comfortably, turning the ball over three times in the red zone. Desmond Ridder looks to be playing better and if they can just manage the turnovers they should have too much here for the Titans.
Recommendation: Falcons -2.5
Minnesota Vikings (3-4) at Green Bay Packers (2-4)
Sun 6pm GMT
Handicap: Vikings -0.5
Total: 42.5
I’ve been anti Packers and Jordan Love all season and happy to oppose them again here against the Vikings coming off their best performance of the season on Monday night against the 49ers. Cornerback Eric Stokes and safety Darnell Savage both got injured against the Broncos last week and have both been placed on injured reserve. Add linebacker De’vondre Campbell who is questionable and that leaves gaping holes in the Packers D that Kirk Cousins will be more than happy to attack.
Recommendation: Vikings -0.5
Cleveland Browns (4-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-2)
Sun 9:05pm GMT
Handicap: Seahawks -3.5
Total: 37.5
Deshaun Watson has been ruled out for the Browns and PJ Walker will get the start at QB. I’m not a Walker fan and even less so in Seattle with the 12th man. Cleveland were incredibly lucky to win last week against the Colts, aided by two questionable calls by the officials at the end. Seattle won last week against the Cardinals despite turning the ball over 3 times and I don’t expect them to be as generous at home.
Recommendation: Seahawks -3.5
Note
Lines correct at time of writing but are subject to change.
All recommendations are to win 1 unit. So, if the odds are 10/11 I recommend you risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I also recommend proper bankroll management and 1 unit should not be more than 2% of your overall bankroll.
NFL Betting Tips and Picks for the NFL Week 7
As usual a quick look at what happened last week before we get onto this week.
We won with the Ravens in the last of the London games and can consider ourselves unlucky to lose the total there by half a point in a game where there were 10 combined trips into the red zone which resulted in only 2 touchdowns.
We also won with the Bengals who came up with big plays just when they needed them against the Seahawks.
Our other losses were with the Chargers on Monday night who squandered multiple red zone chances and the 49ers who lost outright in what was by far the best week of the season to date for the bookies as the Eagles also lost outright to leave no undefeated teams going into Week 7.
Bye teams this week are Carolina, Cincinnati, Dallas, Houston, Tennessee and the Jets.
So just the 13 games this week and a lot of them have some key injuries.
Trevor Lawrence is questionable for the Jaguars for the Thursday night game. The quarterbacks for both teams are questionable in the Raiders and Bears game. Deshaun Watson is questionable for the Browns as they play the Colts and Gardner Minshew with Anthony Richardson already placed on injured reserve and done for the season.
Add Daniel Jones, Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield to the questionable QB list and what do we have left?
Washington Commanders (3-3) at New York Giants (1-5)
Sun 6pm BST
Handicap: Commanders -2.5
Total: 39.5
I’m actually going to play this one with Daniel Jones still listed as questionable as I don’t think it matters who is QB for the Giants as their offensive line is decimated with injuries. Whoever is back there is going to be scrambling for their life all day against a Commanders team who have been quietly efficient all season.
Recommendation: Commanders -2.5
Detroit Lions (5-1) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2)
Sun 6pm BST
Handicap: Ravens -3.5
Total: 41.5
The Ravens chose not to take their bye after the London game and can be exploited here by Jared Goff and the Lions who look like the real deal this season.
Recommendation: Lions +3.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) at Las Angeles Rams (3-3)
Sun 9:05pm BST
Handicap: Rams -2.5
Total: 43.5
The Steelers offense has been anorexic with the questionable play calling of Matt Canada and they have their defense to thank for their current winning record. I don’t think that will be enough however on the road at the Rams who have Cooper Kupp fully healthy to complement rookie sensation Puka Nacua and the other weapons at Matthew Stafford’s disposal.
I also like the Rams team total over as they are without both running backs and will be forced to throw the ball more than usual.
Recommendation: Rams -2.5
Recommendation: Rams Team Total Over 23.5
Los Angeles Chargers (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-1)
Sun 9:25pm BST
Handicap: Chiefs -5.5
Total: 47.5
The Chargers come into this one off a short week having played on Monday and the Chiefs off a long week, having played on Thursday night last week. Although we haven’t seen the Chiefs firing on all cylinders yet and they have some issues at the WR spot, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes always find a way to get the job done and they should do so again here against the Chargers who gave up a lot of big plays against the Cowboys on Monday night.
Recommendation: Chiefs -5.5
Also, a word of waring if you like to bet totals to do your homework this week and watch the weather reports. High winds are predicted for most of the east coast games and totals have already been bet under.
NFL Betting Tips and Picks for the NFL Week 6
We got back on track last week going 4-1 to take us to 8-6 (57%) on the season.
Our only loss came with the Patriots who I will downgrade across the board. As a good friend of mine says, sometimes you’re the windscreen and sometimes you’re the bug. Squish!
Happily, we were the windscreen on our other 4 plays. The Steelers and Ravens was a close game as predicted and we didn’t need the +4.5 with the Steelers rallying from 10-3 down to win outright.
We won both our total bets with Jets/Broncos and Cowboys/49ers both going over. The Jets built on their performance against the Chiefs to get a good win on the road while the 49ers made a big statement as they easily brushed aside the Cowboys.
And we also won with the Raiders on Monday night. Depending on how quick you were after Garoppolo and Adams were upgraded to probable, you would have got anywhere between +1.5 and -2.5 as the market moved on the news. They won by 4 to cover all handicaps in spite of a horrible decision by Josh McDaniels to attempt a 52-yard field goal rather than go for it on 4thand 1 to ice the game.
Elsewhere the Jaguars will be sad to come home from London having won twice there, the Dolphins got back on track and the Eagles and Chiefs both recorded good road wins.
Now onto week 6 with just Green Bay and Pittsburgh resting this week.
Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at Tennessee Titans (2-3)
Note: Game being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Sun 2:30pm BST
Handicap: Ravens -3.5
Total: 40.5
We saw last week how the Bills started very sluggishly after only travelling to London on the Friday. The Titans will travel on Thursday this week but the Ravens travelled on Sunday night. I’m a big believer in preparation for these games and I think travelling earlier gives the Ravens an edge. Add to that the fact that they get Moses and Stanley back to give them a fully healthy offensive line for the first time since week 1. That will give Lamar Jackson the time he needs to look downfield to exploit a weak Titans secondary that has been giving up big plays all season.
Recommendation: Ravens -3.5
Recommendation: Over 40.5
San Francisco 49ers (5-0) at Cleveland Browns (2-2)
Sun 6pm BST
Handicap: 49ers -6.5
Total: 38.5
This line opened as low as 4.5 but has been bet up to where it sits now. The 49ers have it all as we saw against Dallas on SNF last week. For the Browns it looks likely that Deshaun Watson won’t be able to go as he’s not been practicing and they announced that PJ Walker will get the start if that indeed is the case.
Recommendation: 49ers -6.5
Seattle Seahawks (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-3)
Sun 6pm BST
Handicap: Bengals -2.5
Total: 44.5
We saw Joe Burrow have his best game of the season last week against Arizona. He was able to move around more in the pocket and make some scrambles, which indicates he’s back near 100% after his calf injury. Ja’Marr Chase is also looking unplayable.
Seattle have looked good but they have injury concerns on both sides of the ball. I think Cincy keeps improving and like them here laying less than a field goal.
Recommendation: Bengals -2.5
Dallas Cowboys (3-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)
Tue 1:15am BST
Handicap: Cowboys -2.5
Total: 51.5
Should be a good one on Monday night but I’m not sold on the Cowboys. Who have the really beaten? The Jets, Giants and Patriots. 3 of the worst teams in the league. Their losses came on the road at Arizona and San Francisco, and yet here they are going into SoFi against a rested Chargers team coming off the bye who get one of their key weapons in Austin Ekeler back. Not for me. I like the Chargers here.
Recommendation: Chargers +2.5
Note
Lines correct at time of writing but are subject to change.
All recommendations are to win 1 unit. So, if the odds are 10/11 I recommend you risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I also recommend proper bankroll management and 1 unit should not be more than 2% of your overall bankroll.
NFL Betting Tips and Picks for the NFL Week 5
As usual, before we start on this week’s games let’s look at what happened last week.
It was a rough week for my recommendations as we went 1-4. I write this column on a Wednesday so anything that happens later in the week or on gameday is not accounted for, and last week there was a lot that happened that affected my recommendations.
Deshaun Watson was an unexpected gameday scratch for the Browns with an injury to his throwing shoulder which caused the line to move 4 points from Browns -2 to Ravens -2. I was able to cash in my own Browns bet when the news broke for a small loss and in fact got on the other side against a rookie QB making his first start.
Derek Carr was also unexpectedly deemed fit to play for the Saints on gameday which was in fact bad for the total bet. I had more points expectation with Jameis Winston at QB.
And finally starting tackle Andrew Thomas who was expected to play for the Giants, missed out leading to line movement in that game towards the Seahawks which was justified as Daniel Jones was under pressure all night as the Seahawks recorded 11 sacks. Here again, I was able to cash out and switch to the Seahawks.
Moral of the story – don’t get married to your bets or first impressions. Always analyze new information that affects the market, and it goes to show just how much key players can affect the line.
We also lost with the Swifties, nay Chiefs, who won but didn’t cover with Mahomes choosing to take a knee at the end of the game rather than go into the endzone which would have covered the handicap.
The only bright point was the win with the Jags in London who will stay there this week but face a much sterner test against the Bills who brushed aside the previously impressive Dolphins.
Now onto Week 5. The bye weeks start this week with Cleveland, LA Chargers, Seattle and Tampa Bay being the first teams to take a break, meaning two less games to choose from.
New Orleans Saints (2-2) at New England Patriots (1-3)
Sun: 6pm BST
Handicap: Patriots -0.5
Total: 39.5
Derek Carr cleared concussion protocol and played last week against the Buccs but could only manage 0.4 air yards in a clear sign that something is not right with the Saints offense.
The Patriots will look to bounce back from an ugly loss at Dallas and have the perfect opponent here at home in the Saints. They did unfortunately lose standout rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez last week but after playing close games against both the Eagles and the Dolphins at home I think they should have enough to dispose of the lackluster Saints here.
Recommendation: Patriots -0.5
Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)
Sun 6pm BST
Handicap: Ravens -4.5
Total: 37.5
Some question marks over the QB for the Steelers this week but to be honest even if Pickett can’t go, I really don’t think Trubisky is much of a downgrade, if at all.
The Ravens I think have been fortunate with their schedule and have beat teams riddled with injuries and faced backup QB’s.
For me to be laying 4.5 on the road in a division rivalry game that is historically always close is just too much. I’m taking the home dog here.
Recommendation: Steelers +4.5
New York Jets (1-3) at Denver Broncos (1-3)
Sun 9:25pm BST
Handicap: Broncos -1.5
Total: 43.5
Broncos’ games have had 59, 90 and 68 points respectively the last 3 weeks indicating their offense has been efficient, but equally that their defense is horrible.
The Jets are coming off their best game off the season last week in a narrow loss to the Chiefs where Zach Wilson had arguably his most impressive performance in the NFL against a very good Chiefs defense.
The total is too low for me here at 43.5
Recommendation: Over 43.5
Dallas Cowboys (3-1) at San Francisco 49ers (4-0)
Mon 1:20am BST
Handicap: 49ers -3.5
Total: 45.5
A good one here on Sunday night between two of the best teams in the NFC. Both teams have put up 30+ points each week except for the Cowboys’ inexplicable blip two weeks ago against Arizona.
Both teams also have defences that can create turnovers and make things happen. I expect a high-scoring eventful game at Levi’s Stadium.
Recommendation: Over 45.5
Green Bay Packers (2-2) at Las Vegas Raiders (1-3)
Tue 1:15am BST
Handicap: Packers +1.5
Total 44.5
An interesting game this week on Monday night football. I’m not sold on Jordan Love and the Packers. If you watch the tape, he forces a lot of throws into very tight coverage and for me it’s only a matter of time before he has a multiple interception game.
I lean the Raiders here as a home dog but can’t push it to a full recommendation until the status of Jimmy Garoppolo and Davante Adams is confirmed. At time of writing both are still questionable. If both go then I’ll be betting the Raiders.
Lean: Raiders +1.5 pending injury news
Note
Lines correct at time of writing but are subject to change.
All recommendations are to win 1 unit. So, if the odds are 10/11 I recommend you risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I also recommend proper bankroll management and 1 unit should not be more than 2% of your overall bankroll.
NFL Betting Tips and Picks for the NFL Week 4
First off let’s have a look at what happened in week 3. Well, we went 3-1 so anyone that followed last week’s recommendations would have been in profit.
We won easily with the Dolphins -6.5 who dropped 70 on Denver. Fairly easily with the Seahawks -5.5 who won by 10 against a Panthers team led by Andy Dalton after Bryce Young was ruled out. The market actually viewed Dalton as an upgrade with the game closing at 4.5
Our third win was with the Patriots in an ugly game against a hapless Zach Wilson and the Jets.
And we lost our final play on Monday night with the Buccs who were never in the game.
Elsewhere, the Bears might be the worst team in football, the Cowboys were upset in Arizona, the Bills dominated the Commanders and the Browns brushed aside the Titans.
Now onto NFL Week 4.
The status of some QB’s is still uncertain at time of writing so I have stayed away from those games: Jimmy Garoppolo (LV) Bryce Young (CAR) Anthony Richardson (IND)
The game of the week is clearly the Dolphins at the Bills but I don’t have a strong opinion either way on that one so prefer to look at some easier betting opportunities.
Atlanta Falcons (2-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)
Note: Game being played at Wembley Stadium, London
Sun: 2:30pm BST
Handicap: Jaguars -2.5
Total: 43.5
London calling for the first of the International Series games this year. It’s a familiar place for the Jaguars as they look to bounce back from a horror show against the Texans last week. Everything that could have gone wrong did go wrong last week for the Jags; turnovers, missed FG’s and allowing an 85-yard kickoff return. They can get back on track against the Falcons and their anorexic offense that only manages 6 points on 183 total yards at 2.8 yards per play last week against the Lions.
Recommendation: Jaguars -2.5 @ 8/11
Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-1)
Sun 6pm BST
Handicap: Browns -2.5
Total: 41
In losing at home to Indianapolis last week Baltimore added RB Gus Edwards and WR Rashod Bateman to an already lengthy injury list that includes star WR Odell Beckham Jr, C Tyler Linderbaum and T Ronnie Stanley. Now they go up against one of the league’s best defenses who held the Titans to only 3 points and 4.6 yards per play last week and showed signs of Deshaun Watson and their offense getting on track.
Recommendation: Browns -2.5 @ 4/5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
Sun 6pm BST
Handicap: Saints -3.5
Total: 40.5
Jameis Winston is expected to get the start at QB for the Saints with Derek Carr doubtful. They also get RB Alvin Kamara back which should lead to more offensive production, and I expect to see more downfield shots from Winston, especially against a weak Buccs secondary. On offense the Buccs should find it much easier here than against the Eagles on Monday night and we should see some points. The total was already bet up from the opener of 39 but I think there’s still value to be had at the current number of 40.5
Recommendation: Over 40.5 @ 17/20
Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2)
Mon 1:20am BST
Handicap: Chiefs -9.5
Total: 42.5
I was very surprised not to see a double-digit handicap here. I bet the opener of -9 on Sunday night and its only moved half a point since. I just can’t see how the Jets are going to put up any points in this one. Zach Wilson has been very poor, so poor in fact there are rumors the Jets are signing Trevor Siemian. Chiefs dominate this one for me.
Recommendation: Chiefs -9.5 @ 17/20
Note
Lines correct at time of writing but are subject to change.
All recommendations are to win 1 unit. So, if the odds are 10/11 I recommend you risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I also recommend proper bankroll management and 1 unit should not be more than 2% of your overall bankroll.
NFL Betting Tips and Picks for the NFL Week 3
Denver Broncos (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-0)
Sun 6pm BST
Spread: Dolphins -6.5
Total: 48.5
Perhaps the most impressive team for me through the first two weeks has been the Miami Dolphins. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders with 8.2 yards per play against the Chargers in week 1 and 6.5 yards per play against a tough Patriots defense in week 2. The Patriots took away the deep shots but Miami adjusted well and came up with a more balanced gameplan that saw them call 30 passing plays and 30 run plays.
Compare this to the Broncos who in 2 home games where they were favored could only manage 5.6 yards per play and 4.5 yards per play (excluding the Hail Mary against Washington) They lost both games, giving up a 21-3 lead against Washington and there were signs of friction between Wilson and Payton in that game.
I can’t see things getting any better this week for the Broncos.
Recommendation: Dolphins -6.5
New England Patriots (0-2) at New York Jets (1-1)
Sun 6pm BST
Spread: Patriots -2.5
Total: 37
The Patriots started with two very tough matchups against the Eagles and Dolphins and despite losing them both, they were in both games with a chance to win until the end. Things get a lot easier here for Bill Belichick’s team as they travel to the Meadowlands for a divisional game against Zach Wilson and the Jets.
The Jets time of possession was only 18 minutes in week 2 against Dallas and could not sustain any drives. Zach Wilson averaged 3.03 seconds to pass the ball which is a very long time in the NFL and will give the Patriots D plenty of time to get pressure on him.
Recommendation: Patriots -2.5
Carolina Panthers (0-2) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)
Sun 9:05pm BST
Spread: Seahawks -5.5
Total: 42
The Panthers come into this one off a short week having played on Monday night and their offense has looked awful. Their wide receivers have not been able to get separation and this has showed with a low 3.9 yards per play in week 1 and 4.8 ypp in week 2 which was padded by a garbage time touchdown drive.
Seattle was disappointing in a week 1 loss against the Rams but bounced back in week 2 with a road win in Detroit as underdogs. Geno Smith looked particularly impressive playing without his two starting tackles and without star receiver DK Metcalf for a portion of the game. The D also brought it forcing fumbles and turnovers and should feast this week against Carolina at home with the support of their 12th man.
Recommendation: Seahawks -5.5
Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0)
Tue 12:15am BST
Spread: Eagles -5
Total: 46
The only matchup between two undefeated teams this week and arguably the game of the week as part of a Monday night football doubleheader.
The Buccs were slightly fortunate to come away from Minnesota with a win in week 1 but dominated the Bears at home last week, and in truth only winning by 10 points flattered the Bears as the Buccs outgained them by 201 total yards and had to settle for 3 field goal attempts in the red zone.
The Eagles come in after wins against the Patriots and Vikings where they got out to leads early but were hanging on a bit at the end. The Eagles have some injuries and question marks on defence with linebacker Nakobe Dean being placed on injured reserve and safety Reed Blankenship and cornerback James Bradberry both questionable for this one.
This line opened 6.5 and sharps pushed it down to 5 where it currently sits but I still believe there is value on the +5.
The total was also bet over here pushing it from 44 to 46. While I lean over I don’t recommend taking the secondary number here.
Recommendation: Buccaneers +5
Note
Lines correct at time of writing but are subject to change.
All recommendations are to win 1 unit. So, if the odds are 10/11 I recommend you risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I also recommend proper bankroll management and 1 unit should not be more than 2% of your overall bankroll.
Are you ready for some football?
*Odds correct at time of publishing. Available to UK residents (excluding Northern Ireland) aged 18+ only. T&Cs apply. www.begambleaware.org
