January 24, 2024
The Vegas Edge, All-American Sports Tips
Weekly American Sports tips, Picks and analysis from Las Vegas, covering betting tips and advice for all types of American Football, Basketball and Baseball.
Matthew, our Vegas-based writer brings you all of the interesting bests from America. Each week, he analyses the best sports betting options to bring you the choice games. With over 2 decades in Vegas Casinos and a lifetime of sport betting knowledge, what Matthew doesn’t know about American Sports, isn’t worth knowing.
American Sports Tips for January
25/01/2024 NBA Prediction for Boston Celtics (34-10) at Miami Heat (24-10)
The Celtics bring the best record in the Eastern Conference to South Florida in a rematch of last season’s Eastern Conference Championship where the Heat’s star player, Jimmy Butler, owned the Celtics. While the Celtics picked up where they left off last year, the Heat have struggled but are still in the playoff picture. The Heat have had injury problems this year as well as losing some key players from last year. With Butler getting healthy and the Heat office trading for guard Terry Rozier. Rozier lacks the experience and leadership of Kyle Lowry but brings a great all-around guard game to a team that needs scorers. I’ve stayed away from the Heat this season but will be looking at them closer as the season progresses.
The Money Pick: Boston Celtics -5.5
The Boston Celtics lost some key players as well but found replacements that were instant upgrades. Boston guard Jrue Holiday filled in as the defensive stopper they lost and brings more offense to the team that they lacked in the past. Payton Pritchard is coming off the bench and tearing up second units as a rookie. While the health of new center Kristaps Porzingas is always a mystery, he is healthy now and a great puzzle piece to a dynamic offense. And these are the supplementary players to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown who are at the top of league talent-wise.
The Heat are playing a back to back games, and are not looking good. Look for the Celtics to punish a weak Heat team for eliminating them last summer.
25/01/2024 NBA Prediction for Denver Nuggets (31-14) at New York Knicks (27-17)
2023 NBA Champions, the Denver Nuggets go to Madison Square Garden to take on a hot Knicks team. Jalen Brunson was added as a starter to the Knicks this year and is paying off instant dividends. Brunson is averaging 26.6 points per game and 6.5 assists. Many of those to fellow star and work horse, center/forward John Randle who is averaging 24 points per game and 9.3 rebounds. Denver is bringing back the championship team almost entirely including finals MVP Nikola Jokic who is the most dominant force in basketball today. His scoring mate, guard Jamal Murray, dealt with injuries early in the season and is rounding into form now. The Nuggets are the current #2 pick to win the NBA Championship again and are cruising.
The Money Pick: Denver Nuggets -2
I like this Knicks team. Brunson has proven he belongs as an NBA starter and is doing more than just scoring, he’s running the team. I’ve always like Randle’s game and think he is one of the more under rated big men. The Knicks have center/forwards Mitchell Robinson as out and Isaiah Hartenstein as questionable with an Achilles tendon injury. Without those two it changes Randle’s game and the team tremendously. Randle is better in space, and better with other big men to share the load. With the Nuggets bringing the best big man on the planet to the Garden, it will be a long night for Randle. While the Nuggets aren’t filled with defensive stoppers, they are a big team that will give a small Knicks team more than they can handle. I think the Knicks can add a shooter and be relative for a championship run, but they are too injured for this game and just outclassed by a better team.
Previous Week’s American Sports Tips:
19-01-2023 NBA Prediction for Denver Nuggets 28-14 at Boston Celtics 32-9
One of the premier games of the season brings us to league giants and a potential NBA finals matchup. Last year’s champion the Denver Nuggets have weathered some injuries and are operating at full force. Finals MVP Nikola Jokic leads the Nuggets with an almost identical team as the one which proved unstoppable last year. Dealing with injuries, the Nuggets have been susceptible to losses on the road this year. Their last game was a loss as they fell to another Eastern Conference giant, the 76ers 121-126 in Philadelphia.
The Nuggets come to a Boston TD Arena where the Celtics are on a 20-game win streak. There were a lot of questions about the Celtics and its stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Those questions were answered as the Celtics own the best record in the NBA. It sounds redundant to say they did in an impressive fashion but have been simply crushing. If the Celtics can stay healthy, they will go deep in the playoffs as a favourite.
The Money Pick: Over 234.5
Boston averages 120 points per game and the Nuggets 116. Both top half of the league in scoring. Generally, when two high-scoring teams get together, the pace and scoring are picked up. Denver which plays at a surprisingly slow pace will have to pick up their speed to keep up with Boston who flies at home and has the number one 3-point percentage in the league. These teams do not have bad blood or playoff history or familiarity with each other, being from different conferences and they have never met in the playoffs. The under has hit more in the past of these two teams, but personnel changes have changed Boston’s makeup. All these factors lead to offensive edges and a runaway game. This will be a great game to watch.
1/1/2024 NCAA Football Prediction for the Fiesta Bowl: Liberty 10-0 at Oregon 11-2
Liberty College has been lighting up scoreboards, stat sheets, and win columns for several years. Prior Liberty quarterback Malik Willis made it to the NFL and Liberty College was paid off with a home conference and possible bowl eligibility. Liberty ran the table and is in the Fiesta Bowl. 2nd in nation in rushing yards, 3rd in total yards, 5th in points. My condolences, Liberty; you get to face the mighty Oregon Ducks.
The Money Pick: Oregon -18 at 10/11
The Oregon Ducks are one of the best teams in the nation, but barely missed the playoffs by losing the PAC 10 Championship to the Washington Huskies, who are in the playoffs. Oregon couldn’t get past the Husky secondary but absolutely shredded everyone else. Shredded. This bowl game means a lot to an Oregon team that is moving to a bigger conference as a contender next year. It means a lot to Ducks quarterback Bo Nix, who is already planning his Heisman career and the 2025 NFL Draft.
The Ducks are 2nd nationally in total yards, passing yards, and points. Unlike Liberty stats which came in a weak conference, the Ducks play in a crumbling, yet top 3 athletic conference. My most significant edge in analyzing games this bowl season is analyzing conferences. This is Conference-USA vs. the Pac-10, and there’s no contest. The athletic difference alone is enough to cover this spread. The Ducks will move the ball with ease against an outmatched Liberty defense that’s never seen anything like this before. While Liberty will be able to score some points, the Ducks’ defense will wear them down and make enough big plays to stretch the score to an easy cover.
1/1/2024 NCAA Football Prediction for the Citrus Bowl: Iowa 10-3 at Tennessee 8-4
Iowa won the Big Ten West Conference and lost to Michigan in the Big Ten Championship game. Defense is the trademark of Iowa Football. Iowa set a new record point total with a low of 24.5 that went under! I profited off their 12/13 under streak but couldn’t bear to watch a game. Iowa can’t move the ball, pass the ball, run the ball, or even roll the ball down the field. I think their defense has a better chance of scoring points in this game than the offense. Iowa’s defense has been simply outstanding, albeit in a slow and untalented conference. Winning 13-10 games only works in a few places.
The Money Pick: Under 36 at 10/11
Tennessee is missing its own star quarterback, Joe Milton, who is capable of lighting up any defense, along with a few other opt-outs. Nico Iamaleava will make his first college start without Tennessee’s top 2 running backs and down several receivers against one of top defenses in the league that will be motivated. It’s tough to put in that many skill positions in a big game against a defense like that. I think Tennessee’s athleticism will garner enough big plays to win, but this will be a slow start and a slow finish as this game crawls under 36.
1/1/2024 NCAA Football Prediction for the Rose Bowl: Alabama 12-1 at Michigan 13-0
Michigan football has finally put together an undefeated season, beat arch-rival Ohio State, won the conference, and are favorites going into the playoffs. The Michigan Wolverines unleashes wave after wave of NFL caliber on defense and huge offensive linemen that can’t be stopped. No one has been able to lift a hand of competition all year. Alabama has had a slight down year after losing wave after wave of NFL-caliber talent to the NFL draft. A slightly down year for Alabama is losing one game. Alabama has ruled college football for a decade. Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe still hasn’t lived up to his recent stellar list of predecessors but has grown into a top quarterback.
The Money Pick: Alabama to win 21/20
Roll Tide!!!! I do think that Michigan has some edges in this game. They’ll be able to run the ball incrementally against an Alabama defense that gives up points and yards. Football is a strange sport; if a few things go Michigan’s way early, they can win.
Comparing other vital positions and statistics, Alabama dominates. Alabama defensive backs and linebackers are much improved and will give Michigan slow receivers problems. Alabama should be able to stop the receivers with just the defensive backs, leaving the linebackers to roam and attack. Saban will have his players disciplined and ready with a decisive attack. Alabama will have trouble running the ball vs this solid Michigan front. Alabama will be able to launch the ball deep and accrue big pass plays while allowing almost none. I give various skill position edges to Alabama and general athleticism. Nick Saban is only the best collegiate football coach of all time.
American Sports Tips for December
28/12/2023 NCAAF Bowl Game, Prediction for #24 SMU at Boston College
If you read Vegas Edge at all during the 2023 NCAAF season, you probably read about SMU. This small college in Dallas put together a team that simply destroyed at home and put up unbelievable numbers on the road. SMU quarterback Preston Stone was injured in a gruesome tackle during the last game of the year and remains out. SMU could’ve been in a more premier bowl game if not for that injury, but they are in Boston facing a true bowl game home team in Boston College. Boston backed into bowl eligibility with a 6-6 record in a weak ACC conference. Traditionally not a strong football team, Boston was very respectable this year. Posting a five game win streak with wins over Army and Georgia Tech as highlights. They had some close losses to some good teams this season as well. Boston completely fell apart in the last month of the season, losing big to mediocre teams.
The Money Pick: SMU -10.5 at 10/11
SMU won their conference with backup Kevin Jennings over a tough Tulane defense. SMU covered easily, while a flurry of field goals let the under hit. Jennings is a similar dual threat as Stone which aids continuity between the two players. While some players may not be motivated for these tertiary bowl games, this is Kevin’s shot to display what he can do with a dynamic SMU squad behind him. All his squad did was score 50 points regularly and have a defense that combined for thirty-plus point wins. If this was a meaningful game, I’d bet my life, house, kids, dog, and motorcycle on this pick. Since this is the Boston Bowl, I will bet my usual.
26/12/2023 NBA Prediction for Minnesota Timberwolves 22-6 at Oklahoma City Thunder 18-9
These two teams didn’t make the Marquis Christmas bill, but the #1 and #3 teams in the Western Conference face off in Oklahoma City. Both teams have been playing energetic and entertaining basketball. The T-Wolves are built around Karl Anthony-Towns. Towns didn’t play Saturday and is questionable for this game. The T-Wolves won without him Saturday night behind rookie Anthony Edwards and his blistering year. The T-Wolves acquiring Edwards and Jalen McDaniels this year promises to keep them at the top for years. The Thunder, behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 30+ scoring year, are the favorites. Rookie Chet Holmgren is another Rookie of the Year candidate who helps OKC assemble a dynamic and efficient offense. OKC has Josh Giddey listed as questionable and also missed last Saturday.
The Money Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 at 10/11
Will I take the #1 team in the Western Conference and 3.5 points? Yes, please. Those are enough points to consider any NBA team, especially the hottest one. KAT’s injury status has to be affecting this line; Im grabbing it early because I feel it’s worth the gamble. I like the line with only Edwards and the crew leading the way. The kids showed me nothing but top NBA skills; he is in a great position. OKC has a starting five that can match up with anyone, but I’ll put my money on the best player on the court, Edwards. With or without KAT, the T-Wolves will take the win, but I’ll always take the points.
22/12/2023 NCAAF Bowl Game, Prediction for Georgia Tech at University of Central Florida
While not being one of the premier bowl games of the season, the Gasparilla (????) Bowl is an underdog worth watching. Georgia and Florida both love college football and I expect the Tampa stadium to be loud and quite the party. Bowls are tricky. Both teams finished at 6-6. Georgia Tech put up impressive scoring numbers and totals. With a tough schedule they simply lost to the better teams and beat the inferior teams, including some good wins. They were able to put up scoring totals in the 40s in some tough arenas. The University of Central Florida will have a home-field advantage in this match. UCF made a big conference jump to the Big 12 and got handled slightly because of it. They put up respectable showings and got some conference wins. With quarterback John Rhys Plumlee being injured for a portion of the year, UCF should be happy with a 6-6 record. So the question the world is asking… Who will win the Gasparilla Bowl?
The Money Pick: Georgia Tech to win at 13/8
The over is tempting as Georgia Tech will be without critical defensive lineman Kyle Kennard, allowing Plumlee to run amok and make big plays for UCF. Georgia Tech had some scary losses this year but also put forth some great conference wins. Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King and running back Jamal Haynes have been on a surge and should continue vs. a UCF defense as tough as Christmas wrapping.
23/12/2023 NCAAF Bowl Game, Prediction Coastal Carolina at San Jose State
The Hawaii Bowl. Two 7-5 teams face off in an exciting game. While unheralded, The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and San Jose State Spartans can provide an entertaining game. The Chanticleers made a living in recent years as an underdog juggernaut with a blistering offense. San Jose State returns a typical Spartan team. One that can contend in the Mountain West Conference but struggle against larger conference schools. These tertiary bowl games are tricky. Game and statistical analysis might take a back seat to the coach’s Christmas plans or a beach keg party the night before the game. So, how do we know who will win the Hawaii Bowl?
The Money Pick: San Jose Spartans -10 points
San Jose really picked it up in the last half of the year. The Spartans had a brutal schedule early but crushed conference play during the last half of the season, averaging over 35 a game. It was a potent offense that went 6-0 and 5-1 against the spread in its last six games. The stats on the Spartans are misleading. During a few losses, they gave up big numbers; they shored those up to help with those spreads. I give edges all around for San Jose, but I see the defense being the difference to help secure this 10-point spread. I may have to dip into my stocking and put an extra big bet on this game. Aloha!!
16/12/2023 UFC 296 Prediction for Edwards vs Covington
Two time champion Colby Covington returns to the octagon after a two year hiatus after an outside and criminal altercation with Jorge Masvidal. Covington is one of the great competitors in MMA and brings a dynamic skillset coupling grappling and striking. While Covington uses antics to get attention, he is an all business beast. Aside from the occasional poker tournament Colby lives and breathes MMA. He is taking on defending champion Leon Edwards. Edwards defeated Kamara Usman to win the title with a head kick which was a highlight of the year. He also successfully defended his title against Usman. Covington has never defeated Usman, who was his nemesis.
The Money Pick: Colby Covington to win at 7:5
There are doubts about Covington coming in after a two year absence. Edwards is a textbook kickboxer who changed his game for the UFC; his list of wins is impressive. Among his remarkable stats is a 69% takedown defense. As good of a striker as Colby is, he may be outmatched in the stand up game, although he can seemingly parry hits and trade punches all day. I think Covington’s world class wrestling skills will come into play and be a considerable edge. Colby is a savvy enough fighter to play to his strengths and find ways to win. I don’t think this fight will be any different.
16/12/2023 NCAA Football, The New Orleans Bowl:
Prediction for Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs Louisiana Rajun Cajuns
Jacksonville State was a covering machine early in the season and held on for a respectable 8-4 record and the school’s first bowl game after almost 100 years in Division 2 football. Traveled coach Rich Rodriquez has delivered his team there in his first year and put on some good performances despite quarterback injuries. The cocks had a penchant for slow paced games and defenses that kept them in some ugly games and wins. Louisiana had a respectable season in a lousy division. A streaky offense that could put up numbers on weak teams and struggle against good defenses and on the road fairly typical for small schools.
The Money Pick: Jacksonville State Gamecocks to win at 2:3
I didn’t bet the Rajun Cajuns at all this year; they are too streaky and inconsistent. I did bet Jacksonville State quite a bit and feel they have the tools to win big. Often in bowl games, measuring motivation is a factor which I don’t think is a problem here. Louisiana is the home state to the New Orleans Bowl, and Jacksonville State wants to give Rodriquez and the school a victory in their first bowl game. Louisana may bring more dynamic offense to the table, but it has struggled against good defensive teams. Jacksonville State should have enough defense to stop the Cajuns more than a few times and should also be able to dictate their offense. Gamecock quarterback Zion Webb has filled in and developed nicely. His win-loss record isn’t great, but timing and facing top teams was too much for the young man. He’s had time to develop and is facing a Louisiana defense he should shred. I think this will be one of the better games to watch on Saturday, and the Gamecocks should win easily.
9-12-23 NBA Prediction for Indianapolis Pacers at Los Angeles Lakers
The in-season tournament final. I’ve been busy and have yet to pay much attention to the in season tourney. $500k sounds good to me, so let’s do it. We have battled down to the last two teams. Last years Western Conference finals winner and perennial all star LeBron James take on Tyrese Haliburton and the upstart Indianapolis Pacers. Tyrese is having a great year averaging 26.9 points per game, 12.1 assists and an insane low 2.2 turnovers per game. You have to love that game. Tyrese operates on defenses and will be a name to be reckoned with.
The Money Pick: Los Angeles Lakers to win
Its taken nothing but super teams to beat Lebron James. Hes one of the most cerebral and physically gifted athletes and basketball players of all time. One of the greatest. This Lakers team is shaky, with virtually nobody but James and Anthony Davis, but they have proved they can get it done. Expect the defensive minded Lakers to put the clamps down on Haliburton and coast to an easy victory.
9-12-23 NCAAF Prediction for Army Black Knights (5-6) at Navy Midshipmen (5-6)
The traditional Army-Navy game closes out the regular college football season. I love this game. In an age where politics, money and fame can spoil a sport these footballers bring true grit. Without a single NFL player on the roster or likeness of image cheques these young men put football onto an already 14-hour military day. These young men suit up and practice and give it their all on the field for one reason. The love of the game. Many have been side by side for years and face their last chance to truly play the game they love. I, unfortunately, have other plans this year and can’t watch but I highly suggest watching this game, it is like no other. Both teams run a triple-option offense and barely throw. In a triple-option offense the quarterback is the main runner. Once the play starts, he can hand off to a running back that powers up the middle, can run the ball himself to the outside, or pitch it further outside to a running back. Those are the main options, there are more. A very traditional style of offense that is slow and eats clock. This means it makes the game clock go fast and brings scoring opportunities down. Last year Army defeated Navy 20-17 at home.
The Money Pick: Over 27.5
I do enjoy and follow and handicap and bet the Armed Forces teams. Often they put very competitive teams on the field, but this year not so much. Army lost their quarterback and Navy couldn’t figure out how to put a competitive field on the field, although managed a few wins. Both teams lost offensive players which hurt throughout the year, but both had porous defenses. 16 out of the last 17 went under. Im picking the over because 27 and over was hit often in that stretch. This year linesmakers have been putting out record-low total lines. A lot of defensive talent is gone and these men should find the endzone enough times for the over to squeak by. . This is the lowest this game has been in recent history and may dip lower. Keep an eye out for 27 or lower as the public pounds the under like clickbait.
10-12-23 UFC Fight Night Prediction for S. Egger (8-4) vs L. Santos (6-1)
A flyweight women’s fight on the preliminaries features Brazilian fighter Luana Santos as the favorite. Santos lost her first pro fight then reeled off 6 wins in a row. Santos is an elite-level striker who ends fights quickly. In a complete contrast of style Stephanie Egger brings a grappler skill set to the octogon, and taking Santos to the mat is her clear path to victory.
The Money Pick: Luana Santos to win at 8/13.
Santos has been stopping fights early and amassing over 17 significant strikes to Egger’s 1.9. Santos has a 100% takedown defense and does a great job keeping the fight where she wants it, on her feet. Eggers’s defensive stats are suspect in the standup game. This match will be ugly for Eggers early, if she weathers the storm of punches coming and can get Santos on the ground in late rounds she has a chance, but I expect Santos the striker to do what she does and an early stoppage. I think the odds should be much higher on Santos and am scooping up 8/13.
1/12/2023 NCAAF Pac-10 Championship Game
Prediction for #6 Oregon Ducks 11-1 vs #4 Washington Huskies 12-0
These two teams met in Seattle in October as Washington hosted Oregon in one of the more exciting games of the year. Some suspect play calling and a missed field goal at the end of the game gave the Huskies a 3 point win 33-36. Oregon quarterback and Heisman odds leader Bo Nix and Washington quarterback Michael Penix gave the fans everything they wanted throwing for over 600 yards and 6 touchdowns combined. Both sides also had huge days from their running backs Bucky Irving and Dillon Johnson as both hit the 100 yard mark and a touchdown. The victory put Washington in the top 4 college teams an en route to the national championship playoffs. As predicted the two teams have both won the remainder of their respective games and are facing each other again in Las Vegas on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium. Both teams travel well and are fairly close so I expect both to be represented. Who doesn’t like a trip to Las Vegas? I mentioned that both teams have won out in their games but the Ducks have done so in impressive fashion with some straight up whoopings in the process going 4-2 against some big spreads and looked like an offensive machine. Washington has gone 2-4 against the spread and has not been pulling away from mediocre competition. The spread currently has Oregon as a 9.5 favorite, which I am not touching.
The Money Pick: Over 66.5 total points
I do like Oregon to win, in fact I like Oregon to win the national championship. The teams they will face will be built far different from Washington as 2 of the best quarterbacks and offenses go at each other again. In the first game both offenses could do whatever they wanted. The Huskies are loaded with receivers and Penix can deliver the ball wherever and whenever. The same match ups they exploited at home will be in Las Vegas. Oregon is the hottest team and offense as they have lit up the scoreboard all season and know that this a golden opportunity of a year. Nix has played outstanding with a 78% completion record. The only way to win a football game is to score more points than the opponent and both teams will be scorching down the field knowing it will take a lot of points to do so. Ill be in the stands watching what I think will be the game of the year and what is more fun than cheering an over in a game like this. Hitting it of course!!
2/12/2023 NCAAF AAC Championship Game
Prediction for Mustangs 10-2 vs Tulane Green Waves 11-1
SMU has been my favorite team to bet this year, destroying opponents and putting up 50 points regularly. In their last home game SMU quarterback Preston Stone suffered horrible leg injury with his team up 55-14 in the first half. The game went relatively scoreless afterwards as SMU didn’t want to risk the health of their backup quarterbacks in an easy win vs Navy. Preston was not only the head of a lethal passing attack but one of the leading rushers on the team. Tulane has done nothing but wrack up solid wins including 5 turnovers in last weeks blowout of a good UTSA team at home. Last year Tulane won 59-24 in the typical high scoring games the AAC conference delivers. I was salivating over this game and SMU until the Stone injury.
The Money Pick: Over 48.5 total points
Stone is gone but the rest of an amazing offense remains. Redshirt freshman Kevin Jennings will be at quarterback with impressive high school credentials as well as 2 years in college with scattered game experience. His counterpart Kevin Jennings is a returning AAC champion, led a terrific 15 point comeback to defeat Heisman award loaded USC in the Cotton Bowl last year, and has brought his team back to the AAC championship game and another bowl game. While not putting up gaudy numbers, he has simply won and had 4 years of experience playing on this level. Tulane also brings a stingy, experienced defense. Tulane is currently a 5.5 point favorite. Obviously handicapping a game with such a big change is a stab in the dark. Too many question marks around SMU who I think would be favorites with Stone, along with a much higher total. I projected the original total to be over 55 and would have bet the over. Splitting the total in half it looks like both teams should reach or eclipse the 24 point mark easily. Take advantage of this line slip and take the over!
American Sports Tips for 24th-25th November
24/11/2023 NCAAF Prediction for Memphis Tigers (8-3) vs Temple Owls (3-8)
The Memphis Tigers enter the last week of college football with a respectable 8-3 record. They’ve had some great high-scoring games and finished bowl-eligible but are outside of the division championship. Bowl games in college football used to mean something. Conference champion vs conference champion or national implications on the line. Now with so many bowl games, they are more a marketing gimmick to lure alumni than a meaningful game. Memphis will get invited and will play another decent team, meaning this is the last chance to play one of the worst teams in the NCAA in front of a home crowd. Temple is straight atrocious. Memphis’ strength is offense and is suspect on defense so Temple will have a chance… but..
The Money Pick: Memphis Tigers -11
I could say it again, Temple is horrible. Id expect some points due to a lousy Memphis defense, but Memphis also brings in an offense that can put up points on anybody. And Temple is nobody. Football is a game of momentum and Temple is dead in the water. It wont take much to make this game the blowout it will be.
25/11/2023 NCAAF Prediction for Kentucky Wildcats (6-5) at Louisville Cardinals (10-1)
Louisville has had a great season. Louisville quarterback Jack Plummer has had a great season throwing strikes to his bevvy of talented and fast wide receivers. Louisville is primed for an ACC championship game vs Florida State who lost top quarterback Jordan Travis to a horrible leg injury last week. But there’s no pity in football. Louisville is riding a wave and at home this year has been absolutely untouchable. Last week Louisville went to the University of Miami and pulled off a great win on the road and has all the momentum in the world. The dire news of the Travis injury will only fuel the Cardinals even more. With this being the last home game of the year…
The Money Pick: Louisville -7
Louisville is 11-1 at home ATS the last 12. That’s insane. So Insane I’m riding it again. The last home game of the year for Louisville and they are lighting it up against a slow and plodding Kentucky team.
25/11/2023 NCAAF Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0) at Michigan Wolverines (11-0)
There are rivalries in sports and then there is the Ohio Michigan rivalry. Dating back to colonial America these two adjoining states waged literal bloodbath wars over trading and resource rights. Expect no less in this clash of football titans. The winner of this game goes to the conference championship where a weak Iowa team awaits to be slaughtered, so essentially this is the conference championship. These teams being ranked #2 and #3, when the national championship playoff happens we will most likely be treated to a rematch in a few weeks on a neutral field.
The Money Pick: Michigan Wolverines -3
Michigan coach John Harbaugh’s tenure at Michigan has taken a while to reach fruition but it has. Michigan is estimated to have a school record-setting 15 NFL draft picks next year, meaning this roster is loaded. While Michigan spends most of the year blowing out smaller schools by 30 points a game, this will obviously be the hardest test of the year in an almost mirror-image Buckeye team. Both teams bring savage Defenses and strong run games. Aside from Ohio State’s wide receiver, Marvin Harrison Jr, I don’t see any edge for the Buckeyes. Coaching, quarterback play, offensive, defense… Scouring all the numbers, they all point to a Michigan victory. Harbaugh though wont be on the sidelines for this game with disciplinary action. While this may seem detrimental, the team and the entire state seems to have rallied which is odd because he was caught cheating but its working for the Wolverines. After a decade of beatdowns, Michigan has handed Ohio State two big losses the past two years. At the last home game of the year for rabid Michigan fans, this will rival the blood baths of old!
American Sports Tips for 18th November
18/11/23 NCAAF Illinois (5-5) vs Iowa (8-2), current line Iowa -3, o/u 30
Nothing is more boring than an Iowa football game. This year Iowa is ranked 255th in NCAAFB in total yards (258th) and a surprisingly high 123rd in points with 18.8. Iowa set an insane low total mark at 28 last week, and the under cleared at 22!! As boring as Iowa’s offense is, its Defense is ferocious and has enabled this inept Offense to a 8-2 record. Illinois has had a historically bad football team and this year is no different. In an entire conference that is 3-4 Illinois has produced another unmentionable season. They’ve had some competitive games versus unmentionable teams. This game won’t be much different.
The Money Pick: Under 30
I’ve mentioned the combination of the Iowa Offense and defence. At home, they’ve combined for both a 5-0 under and 5-1 ATS this year. Will Iowa cover the spread? Maybe. An Iowa and parlay has been good several times this year and looks sexy here. But with Iowa’s sluggish Offense I’m sticking with the total. One big play and Illinois could pull an upset or spread-killing game, but either way it goes I think Iowa’s Defence shows up on the last home game of the year as Iowa keeps this a low-scoring game. Iowa’s star defensive cornerback Deshaun Lee will be out with injury but expect the stout Iowa defence to shore up and keep this game very low scoring.
18/11/23 NCAAF Prediction for University of Washington (10-0) at Oregon State (8-2)
With 4 teams making it to the NCAA national championship tournament, Washington at #5 could find themselves watching the games at home. Washington Quarterback Michael Penix Jr has simply destroyed this season using his arsenal of talented receivers to handily reach a 10-0 mark and lead the PAC-10 division. Division rivals Oregon State Beavers have also put on a sensational year and are 5-0 at their new stadium. Unfortunately for Oregon State, it faces the two best teams in the division, Washington and Oregon, in the final two weeks. That pretty record it has amassed this year could be much uglier in two weeks. Oregon State brings a tough defence and a simple yet pounding offense that has done well this year only losing to respectable teams on the road. In Oregon State’s last home game, Reser Stadium will be loud and rocking!
The Money Pick: Washington moneyline @200
The Oregon State Beavers have the defence to slow down Penix and his aerial assault, but that’s about it. While the Beaver’s Offense will score some points on the Washington Husky’s subpar defence and keep it close at home for the fans… The better Washington Husky team will pull away in the second half. Even money is a gift for this Washington team that needs this win to stay in the hunt for a national championship.
American Sports Tips for 10th-12th November
11/11/23 UFC 295 Prediction for UFC Light Heavyweight Title: Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira
A late addition to the card due to a cancellation and new main event should be a great fight. A light heavyweight title fight that Prochazka held but had to relinquish due to a shoulder injury. Prochazka’s style is described as wild or unorthodox which is true and really shows his all-around skills as a mixed martial artist. He feels comfortable and uses his array to expose weaknesses and keep fighters guessing. He does leave himself open to strikes, making him vulnerable to a world-class striker like Pereira. But if he gets his own strikes in, it could be a quick title fight at UFC 259. Pereira is having his first fight in the light heavyweight division after winning and losing the middleweight to Adesanya and previously defeating the current champ Strickland. Pereira is a Brazilian kickboxer who will look fairly stoic next to Prochazka but is as dangerous as a striker as you will find. Pereira has hands of stone, great defence and an edge in cardio as the fight goes longer. Both of these fighters prefer to stand up and fight, with a definite edge going to Prochazka in the ground game.
The Money Pick: Jiri Prochazka to win 1/1
I like Prochazkas experience at light heavyweight and his edge in the ground game as an addition to his arsenal. He wants his title back after injury. I don’t see this fight going the distance and either fighter can end it with a strike or two. The odds are fairly even for a reason. Both are world class strikers and athletes and are worthy of the title. Prochazkas ground game isn’t his specialty but is good enough to be a huge edge and tactical advantage to win this match and bail him out if he gets in trouble. Given his edge I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go to his ground game. Against a fighter as good as Pereira, he may need it.
10/11/23 NCAA Football Prediction for North Texas Mean Green 3-6 vs SMU Mustangs 7-2
My favorite team name The Mean Green, after Alumni and NFL player Mean Joe Green, crosses Dallas and visits the red hot SMU Mustangs in a Friday night game that should be explosive. The Greens come in bringing a road offense averaging 35 points, while the Mustangs offense is averaging 40 at home and has covered by 50+ recently. Both teams can light it up. The Mustangs defense is top ten ranked but its had some easy games to get that ranking and isn’t considered a great defense on a national level. They did an admirable job last week vs a good Rice offense holding them to 24 points on the road and only 3 points in the 4th quarter for a road win.
The Money Pick: SMU -17
A big spread vs a North Texas team that can score, but NT brings no defense to the table and will be shredded. NT has some very respectable numbers on offense and has gone 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games. Very comparable offensive statistics to SMU in yardage and scoring but hasn’t faced a team of this caliber yet. I’m scared of the over due to both teams running the ball and using clock, SMU is far superior on both sides of the ball and my prediction is over the course of this game will steadily pull away and cover the 17.
10/11/23 NBA Prediction for Oklahoma City Thunder (5-3) vs Sacramento Kings (3-4)
The OKC Thunder have silently been winning early this NBA season. While some teams are the Whos Who of the NBA, the Thunder are the Who?of the NBA and still continue to win; like every year. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 28.1 pts, 7 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 2.3 steals a game. Thats monster. Chet Holmgren, the #2 pick in the NBA Draft, seems to have a great team and fit. Hes not called on to do too much and in 30 minutes a game is averaging 16.8 points and 7.9 rebounds with a .550 3point and .571 shooting percentage. From a 7’1” center! Chet is a great candidate for Rookie of the Year. The Kings leader and shooter De’Aaron Fox remains has missed several games and remains on the injured reserve. The Kings just defeated a bad Portland Trailblazers team but have lost to just about everyone else this season. One of their wins was against the Lakers at home, but that was with Fox and his 37 points.
The Money Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5
I like the Kings, their style of play and their chances later in the season for the playoffs. But even if Fox comes back this will be a tough task against a fast and efficient scoring NBA team with 7 players averaging in double digit scoring.
American Sports Tips for 3rd-5th November
4/11/23 NCAA Football SMU Mustangs 6-2 vs Rice 4-4
The Mustangs have been on a tear the past few weeks, destroying spreads and winning by 50+ points. They are taking their high octane offense to Rice in a Texas shootout. Although the two teams are in the same conference they haven’t played each other since 2012. The Mustangs annually field a competitive team while football is not a major concern at Rice.
The Money Pick: SMU -12.5
I’ve been betting on SMU, watching them annihilate opponents and waiting for them to come back to earth. Preston Stone, at quarterback is putting up insane stats and I mentioned their last two victories were by 50+. I like teams that run it up, both at home and on the road. Rice can also score but SMU has been on a mission on both sides of the ball and should dominate Rice handily.
4/11/23 NCAA Football Army Black Knights 2-6 vs Air Force Falcons 8-0
The Air Force Falcons have flown to a 8-0 start with convincing wins. Army this year has fielded one of the worst teams in recent history unfortunately. While never a top tier team the Black Knights annually put forth competitive teams and especially in games matched up versus other armed forces teams puts up memorable games.
The Money Pick: Air Force Falcons -17.5
Air Force brings in a top defense that gives up an average of 13.5 points a game at home and a great offense that averages 35 a game at home. Those averages will probably improve after this game. Army is just that bad. Army might not score a point and Air Force is good enough to score on every drive. The under is already getting pounded, but I’m concerned Air Force could cover the total by themselves and am going with the Falcons to cover a big spread at home.
4/11/23 NCAA Football Nebraska Cornhuskers 5-3 vs Michigan State Spartans 2-6
Nebraska was a powerhouse in football for decades, winning national championships and producing NFL players. As all good things end, Nebraska had their down years and are once again able to field competitive football teams. New coach Matt Rhule has done an excellent job righting his team after an 0-2 start to go 5-1 with the only loss coming to powerhouse Michigan. Nebraska is playing inspired football right now. Nebraska has gone 3-0 in the last 3 games and 2-1 against the spread.
The Money Pick: Nebraska Cornhuskers -3
Good teams will have bad games but bad teams will always be bad teams and the Michigan State Spartans are a bad team. Nebraska has a subpar road record and stats which is why this line is so low, but those were against very good teams and early in the season. Comparing stats for this game, Nebraska is simply crushing every stat, offensively, defensively, it doesn’t matter. Go Huskers!!
American Sports Tips for 26th-28th October
26/10 NBA Philadelphia 76ers vs Milwaukee Bucks
The NBA season opener for the Milwaukee Bucks should be a raucous Thursday night in Milwaukee. Since winning the NBA title the Bucks have been injured and not able to replicate their championship form. With the addition of superstar Damian Lillard the Bucks are the odds favorite to win the championship this year. Lillard and Giannis have the potential to be a pair in the same dynamic breathe as Kobe and Shaq, or Jordan and Pippen. Lillard has wasted his career in Portland, taking his team to the playoffs virtually single-handedly as one of the best shooters and ballers in the game. Now he is teamed with Giannis and Middleton in what is certainly the most dangerous trio in the the NBA. They’re playing big-man superstar Joel Embid and the 76ers and seem to be going the other direction. While Embid has all the talent in the world, James Harden will be sitting out and Tyrone Maxine has established he can put up NBA numbers the 76ers will be without a bench or sufficient help.
The Money Pick: Bucks -5.5. I’m wary of betting the NBA this early but the Bucks are a cohesive team and Lillard is a basket-making machine. I could point out more stats, but simply the energy will be with the Bucks and the crowd as they all feel the onset of a special team and season and will start it with a double-digit win at home.
28/10 NCAA U Mass 1-7 vs Army 2-5
Army is in a down year. At a disappointing 2-5 the Black Knights are ready for an easy game and U Mass is the answer. While the University of Massachusetts has outstanding academics its football program is possibly the worst in football history. Every year I go down their schedule and cherry-pick games and this is one. Army had a fantastic quarterback last year that hasn’t been replaced. I love watching armed forces teams play because of their effort. Like the nature of the armed forces their effort never wanes or quits. These guys have been beaten and bludgeoned all year and now get a weak U mass team at home at Michie Stadium.
The Money Pick: Army -9.5. 9.5 is a lot of points for a 2-5 team that runs a slow triple-option run game. Army was blown out last week 62-0 by a ranked LSU team and I feel a revenge game coming. What makes you feel better after a pummeling than returning the favour? And Army will go full speed the entire game. As this will be their premier win of the season I see an exuberant effort and a spread-covering win for the Army Black Knights!
28/10 MLB World Series Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks
The MLB World Series starts on 28/10 with the surprising Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks with the Diamondbacks a 2.4 underdogs. I like Arizona and their style of play. In a league full of home run hitters, Arizona puts the ball in plays, steals bases and scores lots of runs. They’ve knocked off some big names to get here and have what it takes to win 4 games.
The Money Pick: Corbin Carroll for MVP at 10:1. Carroll is one of two rookies that have helped Arizona get here and has had a tremendous playoff including the game 7 where he had 3 hits, 2 runs and 2 RBIs. More than capable of pulling off more of those games against a Texas staff with a lot of holes.
American Sports Tips for 21st October
21/10 University of Central Florida 3-3 at #6 Oklahoma 6-0
UCF moved into the Big 12 conference this year from a small conference and is about to find out what big boy football is all about. Oklahoma is home after defeating rival Texas in Austin. UCF has a decent offense and can play ball but Oklahoma is a powerhouse at every position. Brent Venables and Oklahoma always put up outrageous offensive numbers every year but this Oklahoma team has built a solid Defense that has the capability to completely shut UCF down and has absolutely no Defense to stop a once again potent Offense.
The Money Pick: Oklahoma -19.5. I hate big spreads but Oklahoma is 5-0 against the spread and has decimated opponents with big wins and has covered. Covering big spreads comes down to coaching style and Oklahoma will push a breakneck pace in a one-sided game.
21/10 Mississippi State 3-3 at Arkansas 2-5
Arkansas and Mississippi State clash in a South East Conference battle. SEC games are always physical, entertaining and full of NFL-caliber talent. Arkansas played a great game last week coming back and challenging Alabama and covering a big spread, but Arkansas is only 1-3 ATS at home this year. There have not been many changes in these schools, keeping similar coaching and personnel styles for years. In recent history, the Mississippi State Bulldogs has gone 7-3 vs Arkansas and is currently a 6.5 point underdog.
The Money Pick: Take Miss State Bulldogs and +6.5 in what I think will be a Bulldog victory. Bulldogs bring the #1 rated road passing attack in the country into Arkansas. Don’t expect those numbers in this conference to match up but the Bulldogs should be able to move and score. Arkansas has struggled in coverage and it’s only a matter of time before they give up big plays. If they can keep it close or pull out a home victory, let’s hope for a close game!
19/10 Tulsa 3-3 vs Rice 3-3
In this AAC division match we see two fairly similar teams. In collegiate football teams are talent-heavy on the offensive side and that is definitely the case here. Both of these teams have had some gaudy totals and whoever wins this game is going to have to score a lot of points to do it.
The Money Pick: Over 57.5 Sit back and watch an entertaining game and cheer for both teams.
American Sports Tips for 14th October
University of Oregon vs University of Washington
On October 14 two of the most exciting and prolific offenses will be squaring up in collegiate American football in a game that might be the game of the year. Pac-12 rivals going head to head with conference and national championship implications as the University of Oregon travels to the University of Washington. Currently, UW sits at a 2.5 point favorite due to the outstanding play of their star quarterback Michael Penix, who averages 400 yards a game passing and a 75% passing completion rate. Penix throws one of the best deep balls in college football history and Washington uses that threat to perfection. Using long routes to open up the field for shorter passes to go long and help their run game. They have amassed a 5-0 record while averaging over 40 points a game, decimating opponents. Oregon brings an equally impressive offense led by Bo Nix. Nix, a transfer from a stagnant Auburn offense, has found a home in Oregon, in his second year has shredded teams. Nix is averaging almost 300 yards a game with a nation-leading 80% pass completion rate.
Oregon also has a 5-0 record and only once has an opponent scored more than 10 points. This will be one of the best college games of the year as the #1 and #2 offenses go head-to-head. Washington defeated Oregon at Oregon last year 37-34.
The Money Pick: Oregon to win outright at 6/5 odds.
Oregon is a much better team than last year, with Nix having more time to get used to his new team and systems his team will have the upper hand. I’ve talked about these two Heisman caliber quarterbacks but the difference will be in the other positions. While Nix may be the name, running the ball is Oregon’s game. Averaging 227 yards, almost 100 more than Washington, Oregon has a run-first mentality and can run at will. The defense has to adjust and when it does Nix and the passing attack is unleashed. Their offense is more balanced which in these big games is invaluable. Oregon’s defense is also a better squad allowing 100 yards less a game than Washington. Oregon’s defensive linemen have and will be able to get to the quarterback unassisted, leaving the linebackers and defensive backs to stay deep on the receivers.
Wyoming vs Air Force
Another conference game between two teams with great records. The 5-1 Wyoming Cowboys visit the 5-0 Air Force Falcons, a game if the Falcons win gives them a huge edge for their conference lead. The Falcons are a 10.5 point favorite and the total is at 41.5. Do you like smash-mouth football? This is your game. This is a huge rivalry game with the teams being in close proximity and both in the middle of nowhere, they always play each other hard in defensive and run-based attacks.
The Money Pick: Under 41.5
When two running offenses meet it makes it a slow game as the game clock seldom stops. Wyoming knows how to play Air Forces running offense and is 8-2 against the spread in the last ten. I do think the Falcons are the better team and at home will get the win but am not touching the 10.5 point spread. Neither of these teams have the stars or athletes for big plays, and as I mentioned run the ball in clock-killing style. With the under going 7-3 in the last 10 games this one will follow the same pattern.
